Global Warming Threatens China Harvests: Forecaster

Chris Buckley, PlanetArk 2 Dec 09;

BEIJING - Droughts and floods stoked by global warming threaten to destabilize China's grain production, the nation's top meteorologist has warned, urging bigger grain reserves and strict protection of farmland and water supplies.

Extreme weather damage can now cause annual grain output in China, the world's biggest grain producer, to fluctuate by about 10 to 20 percent from longer-term averages.

But with global warming intensifying droughts, floods and pests, the band of fluctuation in annual production could widen to between 30 and 50 percent, Zheng Guoguang, head of the China Meteorological Administration, wrote in a new essay. He did not say how long it might be before that could happen.

A stretch of especially bad weather for farming conditions could be disastrous for the world's most populous nation, Zheng wrote in the latest issue of Seeking Truth (Qiushi), the ruling Communist Party's main magazine, which was published on Tuesday and reached subscribers on Wednesday.

"If extreme climatic disasters occur twice or more within five years -- for example, major drought over two or three years -- then the impact on our country's economic and social development would be incalculable," wrote Zheng, who plays a role in developing China's climate change policies.

Zheng's warning appeared days before governments gather in Copenhagen seeking to forge the framework of a new agreement on fighting global warming.

As the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter, China will be a crucial player in those talks. Last week the government announced emissions goals for the next decade.

Zheng's blunt words underscored the hard choices facing Beijing, as both a big polluter and a vulnerable victim of global warming. He is a member of a "leading small group" charged with developing the government's policies on climate change.

FARMING POPULATION

A vast developing country with a farming population of some 750 million, China is also one of the nations most vulnerable to global warming, wrote Zheng. He urged greater attention to adapting to unstoppable shifts in temperatures, rainfall and extreme weather.

China should make a priority of "reducing the impact of global warming on the country's food security, and strengthening the capacity of agriculture to withstand climatic risks," wrote Zheng.

China's grain production has recently reached record levels, despite damage from droughts, floods and frost. In 2008, China enjoyed a fifth straight year of bumper harvests, with grain output at a record 525 million tonnes. U.S. output over the 2007-08 growing year was 412 million tonnes.

Citing previously published research, Zheng wrote that by 2030, China's crop productivity could be 5 to 10 percent lower than it would be without global warming.

While rising temperatures may extend potential growing times and areas for some crops, especially in northeast China, the accompanying rise in evaporation rates is likely to reduce water supplies, undercutting any increases in crop yields, wrote Zheng.

Without adequate adaptive measures, in the second half of the century wheat, rice and corn production could fall by as much as 37 percent of recent averages, he wrote, citing earlier research.

But China "cannot depend on the international marketplace" to make up for these potential shortfalls, because global warming would also erode farming productivity in many parts of the globe, Zheng wrote.

Instead, the government should focus on expanding domestic grain reserves, protecting farmland, developing water-saving technology for farms, and boosting farmers' productivity, he wrote.

(Editing by Ken Wills and Alex Richardson)


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Global warming threatens food supply: Vietnam

Yahoo News 2 Dec 09;

HANOI (AFP) – Vietnam, the world's second-biggest rice exporter, said Wednesday it needs help to safeguard the world's food supply from the consequences of global warming.

"The rice bowl of Vietnam will be severely affected" without action, Nguyen Khac Hieu, deputy director general of the government's climate change agency, told reporters before key global climate talks next week in Copenhagen.

"It's not only for Vietnam's sake but also for the world's food safety," said Hieu, calling for help to enable the country to adapt.

He will be part of Vietnam's delegation at the December 7-18 conference tasked with framing a new deal for tackling global warming and its impact beyond 2012, when existing commitments under the Kyoto Protocol expire.

Vietnam is planning for a one-metre (3.3 feet) rise in sea levels by 2100, which would inundate about 31,000 square kilometres (12,400 square miles) of land -- an area about the size of Belgium -- unless dykes and drainage systems are strengthened, says a United Nations discussion paper on climate change in Vietnam, presented at a meeting on Wednesday.

"The inundation threat is greatest in the Mekong Delta," the country's main rice production and export area, the paper said.

Many billions of dollars will be needed for Vietnam to address sea level rise and other climate change effects, the paper said, adding that the funding cannot only come from aid.

Public finance would also have to be made available, but the first step should be large investments in studies and designs over the coming decades, the paper said.

"The scale and time-span of these projects is unprecedented," it added.

Mobilising funds to help developing countries shore up defences against climate change, and to switch to an economy with low emissions of damaging greenhouse gases, will be one of the key issues in Copenhagen.


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Storms To Hit Philippine Growth, Raise Poverty: World Bank

Rosemarie Francisco and Karen Lema, PlanetArk 3 Dec 09;

MANILA - Two typhoons which struck the Philippines' main island of Luzon in recent months will probably dampen growth in the near term, stretch state finances and push 480,000 people into poverty, a post-disaster report showed on Wednesday.

Damages and losses to crops, property, and infrastructure from typhoons Ketsana and Parma reached nearly $4.4 billion, or 2.7 percent of the Southeast Asian country's gross domestic product, according to the post-disaster needs assessment report issued by the World Bank.

The total is well above the $823 million estimate of Manila's disaster agency, which only accounted for direct damages and excluded resulting economic and property losses.

"The disaster is expected to have a negative impact on GDP growth in the short term," said the report, which was done in collaboration with other international donors and the Philippines government.

"However, once projected public and private recovery and reconstruction spending are included, the net impact of the disasters on economic activity is expected to result in real GDP growth of 1.0 percent in 2009 and 3.5 percent in 2010."

The World Bank estimates are within the government's forecasts of growth hitting the low end of its target range of 0.8 to 1.8 percent this year and picking up to 2.6-3.6 percent in 2010.

Finance Secretary Margarito Teves said the multilateral lenders had offered to extend around $3 billion worth of grants, concessional and commercial loans to the Philippines, but he raised concern that the money may not arrive in time.

"This is a dialogue that we just had, so it is an indication of support coming from them," Teves said.

But he added: "If they don't come in on time, somebody has to fill in the gap in terms or providing the funding in the interim," he said.

The total cost of recovery and reconstruction efforts until 2012 -- especially in farming, flood management and disaster risk reduction and housing -- was estimated at $4.42 billion, with majority, or 55 percent, to be funded by the public sector.

The private sector will take up the rest of the financing.

The $3 billion total includes a $250 million yen loan pledge from Japan.

The World Bank report said the impact of the typhoons on the manufacturing sector, which is suffering from lost inventories and damaged machinery, would likely result in slower state revenues next year.

Luzon, including the capital, produces over three-fifths of the country's GDP and the typhoons would push hundreds of thousands into poverty this year, the report said.

"The number of poor people in the Philippines is expected to increase by 480,000 in 2009," it said. "Total income lost due to the disaster amounted to 50.3 billion pesos ($1.1 billion), which particularly affected informal workers."

The two typhoons severely affected 9.3 million people, or about a fifth of Luzon's population.

Ketsana dumped an unusually high volume of rain over the capital and nearby provinces in late September while Parma crossed over central and northern Luzon regions three times in a space of a week, causing massive floods and landslides.

(Editing by Kazunori Takada)


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Google map shows climate-changed California future

* State panel to consider how best to adapt to effects
* Online map shows sea level, fire risk, other changes
* Adaptation plan to be adopted along with carbon cuts

Peter Henderson, Reuters 2 Dec 09;

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Google unveiled a map of California's climate-changed future on Wednesday, part of the most populous U.S. state's first steps in planning to adapt to "inevitable" global warming.

California leads the United States in its legal mandate to cut greenhouse gases that warm the planet, from auto mileage standards adopted by the rest of the nation to green building codes.

But the state also is planning what to do about warming that it thinks is impossible to stop. Some $2.5 trillion of property and assets are threatened by climate change, Schwarzenegger said, citing a University of California study.

Nearly half a million Californians are at risk from rising sea levels, while a longer dry season has worsened the fire season and a smaller winter snowpack is affecting water supplies, said the state's first adaptation report, released on Wednesday.

This is illustrated in add-ons to a Google Earth map also unveiled by the state on Wednesday.

On the map, the edges of San Francisco Bay appear colored to show the devastating effects of sea level rises of up to 150 cm (60 inches). All of San Francisco International Airport would be under water.

Other add-ons show snow pack decreases since the 1950s and projected through the end of the century, temperature change, and growing fire risks. They appear under Visualization Tools on the CalAdapt website here

Schwarzenegger argued in an animated video simulating a flight over California that cutting carbon dioxide emissions would not be enough.

"We must also be prepared for some continued climate change, which is now inevitable," he said.

The governor introduced the video, as well as a new panel to advise on adaptation priorities and an adaptation strategy report, on man-made Treasure Island in San Francisco Bay -- which could be under water in a century as sea levels rise, he said. (Editing by Eric Walsh)

Google offers a glimpse of how climate change might affect California
LA Times 2 Dec 09;

Researchers and policymakers have long rued that it’s hard to illustrate the perils of global warming when its most serious impacts won’t be visible for decades.

But thanks to the state Natural Resources Agency and Google, a graphic view of climate change’s potential effect on California -- based on scientific modeling -- is now just a mouse-click away.
Do you want to know if global warming will wipe out the Sierra snowpack before your great-great-grandchildren hit college?

Whether rising sea levels will obliterate landmarks in Baghdad by the Increasingly Deep Bay?
Whether your neighborhood will be safe from wildfires whipped by rising temperatures 76 years from now?

If Google Earth already lives in your computer, see for yourself in living color. Dodger fans take note: Much of the field at AT&T Park, where San Francisco Giants play, could someday be under five feet of water.

The interactive initiative is called CalAdapt, and it was unveiled Wednesday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Google CEO Eric Schmidt on scenic Treasure Island in the middle of San Francisco Bay.
Why there? “Within a century, Treasure Island, this place where we are right now, could be totally under water,” Schwarzenegger said during a late-morning news conference. But when it comes to climate change, “it is technology in the end that will save us.”

CalAdapt, which is still in the prototype stage, isn’t a forecaster but rather an electronic way to visualize the possible effects of climate change based on current scientific data, according to the site.

“It’s a whole new way of communicating research,” said Anthony Brunello, deputy secretary for climate change and energy. Although “grandmas, mothers and individuals are a key audience,” the main focus for the site is local planners and scientific researchers.

CalAdapt is part of what Schwarzenegger described as a first-ever, comprehensive state-level strategy to adapt to the future effects of climate change, including rising sea levels, increased temperatures and disappearing snowpacks.

The governor also released the final 200-page report on California’s climate change strategy Wednesday and introduced a new climate adaptation advisory panel composed of 23 leaders from business, labor, government and the private sector.

--Maria L. La Ganga in San Francisco


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AFP, other news agencies seek online climate debate

Yahoo News 2 Dec 09;

PARIS (AFP) – Agence France-Presse and 10 other news agencies have formed a coalition seeking to engage readers around the world through blogs and Twitter messages during the Copenhagen climate summit which starts Monday.

They will run a joint page on the Facebook social networking site that will give media consumers direct access to the journalists and editors covering the UN summit and reactions in key countries.

The news agencies are seeking to use one of the most important international gatherings of the year to attract new readers and make them more directly involved with online news.

The Facebook page, called The Climate Pool, will provide behind-the-scenes reports of the event and links to the main text, photo and video coverage of summit. AFP will also provide blogs from other countries to give an outside view of the summit negotiations.

The Twitter micro blog will be used to attract followers.

AFP is taking part in The Climate Pool project with the ANP agency of the Netherlands, The Associated Press, APA of Austria, APcom of Italy, Canadian Press, DPA of Germany, Kyodo of Japan, Lusa of Portugal, Press Association of Britain and RIA of Russia.

The special page, which can be accessed at www.facebook.com/TheClimatePool, was set up by MINDS International, a global news agency network.

"The Climate Pool will provide a unique outlet for Internet users to discuss climate change with some of the world's most experienced journalists covering the conference," said Wolfgang Nedomansky, MINDS managing director.

AFP Executive Editor Philippe Massonnet said: "This experiment is also a way for news agencies from around the world to show they can coordinate their efforts to serve a common mission of professional news gathering of the highest standard."


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Climate scientist James Hansen hopes summit will fail

James Bone, Times Online 3 Dec 09;

Dr Hansen believes that a Copenhagen deal would be counterproductive

A leading scientist acclaimed as the grandfather of global warming has denounced the Copenhagen summit on climate change next week as a farce.

James Hansen, the director of Nasa’s Goddard Insitute for Space Studies, told The Times that he planned to boycott the UN conference because it was seeking a counter-productive agreement to limit emissions through a “cap and trade” system.

“They are selling indulgences there. The developed nations want to continue basically business as usual so they are expected to purchase indulgences to give some small amount of money to developing countries. They do that in the form of offsets and adaptation funds.” he said.

Dr Hansen, 68, the fifth of seven children of an Iowa farmer, joined Nasa after taking his PhD to study Venus but changed course when he realised that man-made emissions were choking the atmosphere on his own planet.
Related Links

* Hackers ‘aimed to maximise harm to summit’

* Climate change sceptic torpedoes green Bill

He was one of the first voices to raise the alarm about rising global temperatures in the early 1980s, forecasting correctly that the planet would warm in the coming decades.

Next week he publishes his first book, entitled Storms of my Grandchildren, warning that “our planet, with its remarkable array of life, is in imminent danger of crashing” and declaring, “It is our last chance”.

He decries the cap and trade system envisaged by governments trying to “seal the deal” at Copenhagen as ineffective in stemming carbon emissions. Under such systems, governments set limits on overall emissions and polluters trade quotas among themselves.

“The fundamental problem is that fossil fuels are the cheapest form of energy. As long as they are, they are going to be used,” he said. “It’s remarkable. They refuse to recognise and address the fundamental problem and the obvious solution.”

He dismisses government announcements of national targets for greenhouse gas emissions as promises that will not be kept, noting that even Japan missed its goals under the Kyoto Protocol. He said that it would be better for the summit to fail rather than reach the type of cap and trade-based system envisaged.

“If they sign on to anything like they are talking about then it’s definitely counter-productive. Any time you start down that path, it’s time wasted. We would do better taking a year time-out and figuring out a better path.”

Dr Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York, argued that the only effective way to control global warming was to institute an increasing “carbon tax”, not “cap and trade”.

“We are going to have to move beyond fossil fuels at some point. Why continue to stretch it out longer?” he said. “The only way we can do that is by putting a price on carbon emissions. The business community and the public need to understand that there will be a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions.”

He proposes that the “carbon tax” start at the equivalent of about $1 per gallon of petrol but rise in future years. The tax revenues should be returned directly to the public in the form a dividend, he said.

He added that the world must be prepared to abandon coal unless its emissions are captured and embrace a new generation of nuclear power.

Dr Hansen, who was a young post-doctoral student at Columbia University at the time of student unrest against the Vietnam War on the campus in the late 1960s, said that government inaction on global warming called for similar “civil resistance” now. He said: “That is the kind of activism we need.”

Copenhagen climate change talks must fail, says top scientist
Exclusive: World's leading climate change expert says summit talks so flawed that deal would be a disaster
Suzanne Goldenberg, guardian.co.uk 2 Dec 09;

'We don’t have a leader who is able to grasp [the issue] and say what is really needed. Instead we are trying to continue business as usual,' say James Hansen. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

The scientist who convinced the world to take notice of the looming danger of global warming says it would be better for the planet and for future generations if next week's Copenhagen climate change summit ended in collapse.

In an interview with the Guardian, James Hansen, the world's pre-eminent climate scientist, said any agreement likely to emerge from the negotiations would be so deeply flawed that it would be better to start again from scratch.

"I would rather it not happen if people accept that as being the right track because it's a disaster track," said Hansen, who heads the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

"The whole approach is so fundamentally wrong that it is better to reassess the situation. If it is going to be the Kyoto-type thing then [people] will spend years trying to determine exactly what that means." He was speaking as progress towards a deal in Copenhagen received a boost today, with India revealing a target to curb its carbon emissions. All four of the major emitters – the US, China, EU and India – have now tabled offers on emissions, although the equally vexed issue of funding for developing nations to deal with global warming remains deadlocked.

Hansen, in repeated appearances before Congress beginning in 1989, has done more than any other scientist to educate politicians about the causes of global warming and to prod them into action to avoid its most catastrophic consequences. But he is vehemently opposed to the carbon market schemes – in which permits to pollute are bought and sold – which are seen by the EU and other governments as the most efficient way to cut emissions and move to a new clean energy economy.

Hansen is also fiercely critical of Barack Obama – and even Al Gore, who won a Nobel peace prize for his efforts to get the world to act on climate change – saying politicians have failed to meet what he regards as the moral challenge of our age.

In Hansen's view, dealing with climate change allows no room for the compromises that rule the world of elected politics. "This is analagous to the issue of slavery faced by Abraham Lincoln or the issue of Nazism faced by Winston Churchill," he said. "On those kind of issues you cannot compromise. You can't say let's reduce slavery, let's find a compromise and reduce it 50% or reduce it 40%."

He added: "We don't have a leader who is able to grasp it and say what is really needed. Instead we are trying to continue business as usual."

The understated Iowan's journey from climate scientist to activist accelerated in the last years of the Bush administration. Hansen, a reluctant public speaker, says he was forced into the public realm by the increasingly clear looming spectre of droughts, floods, famines and drowned cities indicated by the science.

That enormous body of scientific evidence has been put under a microscope by climate sceptics after last month's release online of hacked emails sent by respected researchers at the climate research unit of the University of East Anglia. Hansen admitted the controversy could shake public's trust, and called for an investigation. "All that stuff they are arguing about the data doesn't really change the analysis at all, but it does leave a very bad impression," he said.

The row reached Congress today, with Republicans accusing the researchers of engaging in "scientific fascism" and pressing the Obama administration's top science adviser, John Holdren, to condemn the email. Holdren, a climate scientist who wrote one of the emails in the UEA trove, said he was prepared to denounce any misuse of data by the scientists – if one is proved.

Hansen has emerged as a leading campaigner against the coal industry, which produces more greenhouse gas emissions than any other fuel source.

He has become a fixture at campus demonstrations and last summer was arrested at a protest against mountaintop mining in West Virginia, where he called the Obama government's policies "half-assed".

He has irked some environmentalists by espousing a direct carbon tax on fuel use. Some see that as a distraction from rallying support in Congress for cap-and-trade legislation that is on the table.

He is scathing of that approach. "This is analagous to the indulgences that the Catholic church sold in the middle ages. The bishops collected lots of money and the sinners got redemption. Both parties liked that arrangement despite its absurdity. That is exactly what's happening," he said. "We've got the developed countries who want to continue more or less business as usual and then these developing countries who want money and that is what they can get through offsets [sold through the carbon markets]."

For all Hansen's pessimism, he insists there is still hope. "It may be that we have already committed to a future sea level rise of a metre or even more but that doesn't mean that you give up.

"Because if you give up you could be talking about tens of metres. So I find it screwy that people say you passed a tipping point so it's too late. In that case what are you thinking: that we are going to abandon the planet? You want to minimise the damage."

• James Hansen's book Storms of My Grandchildren is published by Bloomsbury, £18.99

Climate Talk Collapse Better For Planet: NASA's Hansen
Kylie MacLellan, Reuters 4 Dec 09;

LONDON - The planet would be better off if the forthcoming Copenhagen climate change talks ended in collapse, according to a leading U.S. scientist who helped alert the world to dangers of global warming.

Any agreement likely to emerge from the negotiations would be so deeply flawed, said James Hansen, that it would be better for future generations if we were to start again from scratch.

"I would rather it not happen if people accept that as being the right track because it's a disaster track," Hansen, who heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told the Guardian newspaper.

"The whole approach is so fundamentally wrong that it is better to reassess the situation. If it is going to be the Kyoto-type thing then will spend years trying to determine exactly what that means."

On Wednesday China and other big developing nations rejected core targets for a climate deal proposed by the Danish hosts in a draft text, such as halving world greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Developing nations want richer countries to do much more to cut their emissions now before they agree to global emissions targets which they fear may shift the burden of action to them and hinder their economic growth.

Hansen is strongly opposed to carbon market schemes, in which permits to pollute are bought and sold, seen by the European Union and other governments as the most efficient way to cut emissions and move to a new clean energy economy.

Hansen opposes U.S. President Barack Obama's plans for a cap and trade system for carbon emissions in the United States, preferring a tax on energy use.

Tackling climate change does not allow room for the compromises that govern the world of politics, Hansen said.

"This is analogous to the issue of slavery faced by Abraham Lincoln or the issue of Nazism faced by Winston Churchill," he said. "On those kind of issues you cannot compromise. You can't say let's reduce slavery, let's find a compromise and reduce it 50 percent or reduce it 40 percent."

"We don't have a leader who is able to grasp it and say what is really needed," he added.


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Australia Carbon Laws Fail, Election Possible

Rob Taylor, PlanetArk 3 Dec 09;

CANBERRA - Australia's parliament rejected laws to set up a carbon trading scheme on Wednesday, scuttling a key climate change policy of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and providing a potential trigger for an early 2010 election.

Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the government would re-introduce the carbon trade bills in February to give the opposition Liberal Party one more chance to support the scheme, adding the government was not looking at an early election.

"Today the climate change extremists and deniers ... have stopped this nation taking action on climate change," Gillard told reporters.

"This nation is one of the hottest and driest continents on Earth. We are going to be hit particularly hard and early by climate change," she said. "We are determined to deliver the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, we are determined to deliver real action on climate change."

The second rejection of the carbon-trade legislation by a hostile Senate on Wednesday gave Rudd a legal trigger to call an election that could come as early as March or April 2010, and to then ram his laws through a special joint sitting of both houses of parliament if he was returned to power.

But Gillard played down early election speculation.

"The prime minister has made it very clear that it is his intention to have the parliament go full term," she said.

The prime minister, who is overseas, had hoped to take his carbon-trade scheme to next week's global talks in Copenhagen, where world leaders will seek a new agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The emissions trading scheme (ETS) would have been the biggest outside Europe, covering 75 percent of Australian emissions and starting in July 2011.

The Senate rebuff throws the future of carbon trading in Australia into confusion, creating new uncertainty for business, which had sought clarity from the political debate.

"From the point of view of a lot of businesses in Australia they're now back in the dark. No one knows what is coming next," said Tim Hanlin, chief executive of the Australian Climate Exchange.

"For a lot of companies that are going to make investment decisions as we come out of recession, it will be more difficult with no certainty about the carbon price."

Australian electricity prices fell after the Senate rejected the legislation, with the 2011 contract falling 3.7 percent to A$44 per megawatt hour in thin trade.

The "cap and trade" carbon scheme would have forced big polluters, particularly in the coal and electricity sectors, to buy carbon emission permits. Rising permits prices would act as an incentive to reduce greenhouse gases.

The scheme was defeated in the Senate, by 41 votes to 33, by opposition climate skeptics and Greens who wanted tougher emission reduction targets. Two Liberals voted for the laws. The government only needed seven opposition votes to pass the laws.

The Liberal Party last week agreed to back the carbon laws, but climate change skeptics forced a leadership and policy change on Tuesday. "We won't have an ETS as part of our policy going to the next election...," Liberal leader Tony Abbott said Wednesday.

MARCH ELECTION?

Senior opposition lawmaker Christopher Pyne said he expected a dissolution of both houses of parliament and an election early in the new year, ahead of polls due around late November.

"I think the election will be on March 6," Pyne said.

Political scientist Dr Rick Kuhn, of the Australian National University, said reintroduction of the bills would maintain pressure on the Liberal Party while keeping open the option of calling an early election.

"It's more likely that they are keeping the pressure up on the Liberals, driving a wedge further inside the Liberals," he said. "I don't think the government's bluff has been called. I think they are in a very, very strong position."

Bookmakers Centrebet said the odds of a Rudd victory at the next election lengthened for the first time in several months after the carbon laws were defeated, to A$1.22 from A$1.15 -- meaning a A$1 stake would win A$1.22 -- while odds of an opposition win shortened to A$4.10 from A$5.00.

Market analysts believe defeat of Australia's emissions trading plans could temporarily dent political momentum ahead of next week's U.N. climate talks, but the impact is unlikely to affect global carbon prices until at least 2013. [nSYD445124]

European emissions traders told Reuters that regardless of whether some opposition rebels backed the government's bill or it failed completely, an Australian scheme in its proposed form would have little immediate impact on carbon prices.

Australia's population of 21 million has the rich world's highest per capita carbon emissions. It is heavily reliant on coal, shipping and motor transport, so its environmental policies and carbon-cutting potential are closely watched.

(Editing by Michael Perry and Alex Richardson)

Australia's Failed Carbon Trading Scheme
James Grubel and David Fogarty, PlanetArk 3 Dec 09;

Australia's parliament rejected laws to set up a sweeping carbon emissions trade scheme on Wednesday, scuttling a key policy of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and setting a trigger for an early 2010 election.

Here are some facts about how the failed carbon-trade scheme would have looked.

* The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme was set to have started on 1 July, 2011. Under the scheme, about 1,000 of Australia's biggest polluting companies and operations would have had to purchase carbon permits, covering 75 percent of national emissions.

* The government committed to an unconditional emissions cut of 5 percent by 2020. The target could have been increased to 25 percent if the world agreed to a tough new climate pact to expand or replace the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol.

* The "cap-and-trade" scheme required polluters to buy a permit for every tonne of carbon produced. The government proposed a flat carbon price cap of A$10-a-tonne on start-up. Full auctioning and trading of permits was to have started from 2012.

* The government estimated a carbon price of A$26 a tonne in 2012-13 due to the strong Australian dollar.

* The scheme included compensation for businesses and households, with money raised from permits helping taxpayers cope with increased costs for fuel and electricity. The government had also promised to cut fuel excise to match increases under emissions trading, while welfare payments would have been increased as well.

* Additional expenditure measures would initially have cost A$1.28 billion and $7.01 billion over the period 2019-20. A lower estimated carbon price meant a reduction in assistance to households that would have totaled A$5.76 billion to 2019-20.

ASSISTANCE TO KEY SECTORS

* Some polluters exposed to overseas export competition would have received assistance in 2011-12 at 94.5 percent for high emission intensive activities, 66 percent for moderate emission intensive activities and decline at 1.3 percent per annum.

* Coal Sector: A total of A$1.5 billion in transitional assistance over five years, up from A$750 million previously.

* Voluntary Action: The government would have ensured the CPRS took into account voluntary action by households to cut emissions.

* Electricity sector: An increase of A$4 billion in assistance, increasing the total value of permits to A$7.3 billion.

* Electricity Prices: A$1.1 billion would have been allocated to assist medium and large manufacturing and mining businesses with CPRS-related rises in electricity prices in the early years.

* Agriculture: Farmers would have been exempt from the scheme, but would have been able to take part in the market for carbon offset.

* Food processing: A five-year, A$150 million assistance package would have been established within a Climate Change Action Fund.

* Cost of Living: Living costs would have risen by around 0.9 percent, although power bills would have risen by 16 percent. Gas and other household energy bills were seen up 9 percent.

* Households: Around 90 percent of low-income households would have received assistance equivalent to 120 percent or more of their cost of living increase under the scheme.

(Editing by Jonathan Standing)


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Investor Brains Target "Smart" Climate Finance

Gerard Wynn, PlanetArk 3 Dec 09;

LONDON - Smart financing can multiply limited public funds to fight climate change, say investors targeting a financing gap and a major stumbling block for the world to agree a new climate deal.

Developing countries want rich nations to pay them to fight a climate change problem largely created by the industrialized world, under a deal meant to be agreed this month in Copenhagen.

But there is a huge funding gap as recession-hit developed countries struggle to make concrete offers ahead of a December 7-18 summit, meant to lay the framework for a new climate pact to be agreed next year to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.

Carbon markets have so far failed to deliver the tens of billions needed, deploying $6.5 billion in developing countries last year under carbon offset schemes under Kyoto.

"There's a whole new world to look at in addition to carbon finance," said Murray Ward from the New Zealand-based Global Climate Change Consultancy.

Some developing nations want as much as 1 percent of the wealth of better off peers, while rich countries and analysts estimate the climate cost to developing nations at between $100 billion and $300 billion annually by 2020.

Only about $10 billion is on the table now. Double-click here for a factbox of climate costs, money on the table and proposed schemes.

"You can see a huge difference in ambition levels," said HSBC climate analyst Nick Robins.

Ideas center on how to use limited public funds to mobilize much greater private sector cash of around $100 billion.

They range from public loan guarantees or high-risk equity stakes in projects, to bonds where governments sell notes which they repay over 10-15 years, getting up-front investor cash now to protect rainforests, for example.

BONDS, DEBT

"I think institutional investors are attracted by a long bond and I think if you get public policy right you can produce quite attractive returns," said James Cameron, vice-chairman of green investors Climate Change Capital, speaking at an Environmental Finance conference earlier this week.

"Investors want governments to assert the public interest, a reallocation away from business as usual, but their culture gets in the way," Cameron said, referring to high returns from investment in fossil fuels. "Somebody's got to show how it can be done."

One new idea is to link a portion of industrialized nations' swelling sovereign debt to delivering on their climate promises -- which may give private funds the extra confidence to invest in alternative energy, but cost nothing in extra public commitments.

The approach could leverage private sector cash four times the amount of linked public debt, estimated the architect of the approach Michael Mainelli, founder of London-based Z/Yen.

Governments would benefit by differentiating their sovereign debt from all the rest under global, multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans.

Investors would not only have the benefit of more confidence in green investments, but could also use the sovereign debt as a hedge on those investments -- because governments would pay a higher interest rate if they missed their climate pledge.


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Cost Of Climate Change, Offers To Pay

PlanetARk 3 Dec 09;

Sharing the cost of fighting climate change is one of the main sticking points to agree a global warming deal in Copenhagen this month.

The cost is totaled as the combined bill from cutting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for unavoidable changes including droughts, floods and rising seas, called mitigation and adaptation.

Following are cost estimates, offers to pay, and proposed schemes.

COST ESTIMATES

1. Economic cost

* up to 5.5 percent lower global GDP in 2050 - IPCC

* to limit warming to 2-2.8 degrees Celsius

* 1-5 percent of GDP - review by Grantham Research Institute

2. Extra investment

- MITIGATION, GLOBAL

* $430 bln/ year by 2020 - IEA

* falls to $95 bln/ year after efficiency savings -IEA

* 530-810 bln euros/ year 2020-2030 - McKinsey

* $197 bln in developing countries by 2020 - IEA

- ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

* $75-100 billion/ year from 2010-2050 - World Bank

* $7 billion/ year in agriculture alone - IFPRI

3. Funds needed by developing countries

* 100 billion euros ($150.6 billion)/ year by 2020 - EU

* $140 billion/ year by 2020 - Greenpeace

* $50 bln/ year by 2015 - Nick Stern

MONEY ON TABLE

1. Carbon markets

* Kyoto's clean development mechanism spurs trade in offsets

* CDM deployed $6.5 billion to developing countries in 2008

2. Global "green" stimulus, under economic recovery plans

* $177 billion for clean energy - New Energy Finance

* $513 billion for energy, grids, rail, water, waste - HSBC

3. World Bank climate investment funds

* pledges of over $6.1 billion from rich countries

4. Global adaptation fund

* raised from a 2 percent levy on the global carbon market

* valued at 89 million euros ($134.1 million) so far

5. Norwegian funds to slow deforestation

* up to 3 billion crowns ($543 million)/ year

* committed 700 million crowns to an Amazon fund

6. U.S. budget for "international programmes"

* $1.2 billion in 2010, including $275 mln for rainforests

7. Germany carbon allowance sales

* 120 million euros/ year for developing nations

PROPOSED SCHEMES

1. Fast-track funds under U.N. climate process

* Up to $10 bln/ year from 2010-2012 for developing nations

2. Mexican proposal for long-term funds, under U.N. process

* fund raised from all nations

* based on greenhouse gas emissions and ability to pay

* Could initially raise $10 billion per year

3. Norwegian proposal for long-term funds, U.N. process

* apply carbon quotas to rich nations, in tonnes of CO2

* force them to pay for 2 percent of those allowances

* Could raise $15-25 billion per year

4. Carbon markets

* up to 38 bln euros/ year for developing nations by 2020-EU

5. Climate bonds

* investors buy climate bonds

* rich nations guarantee yields and principle on maturity

* could front-load climate cash to spend now


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Best of our wild blogs: 2 Dec 09


Kids can go wild on the shores this December!
from wild shores of singapore

Courtship of the White-throated Kingfisher
from Bird Ecology Study Group

Banded Woodpecker harvesting ants
from Bird Ecology Study Group

From West to East On a Saturday Morning
from Beauty of Fauna and Flora in Nature

Dairy Farm Road
from Singapore Nature

Kopstein’s Bronzeback
from Creatures Big & Small

Two wheels for a change
from The Straits Times Blogs

Very Large Floating Structures may be located near Pulau Jong from wild shores of singapore

Meeting Tam in Borneo: our last chance to save Asia's two horned rhino from Mongabay.com news

Whale Song - 'Pop Culture' of the Planet's Largest Species
from The Daily Galaxy: News from Planet Earth & Beyond

Blogging wildlife rangers drive microconservation
from Mongabay.com


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Town council to remove trees at Marsiling

But some Marsiling Rise residents say the garden is source of community pride
Esther Ng, Today Online 2 Dec 09;

SINGAPORE - For 10 years, the trees - an assortment of mango, jackfruit, drumstick, soursop and neem - have been carefully tended by a group of residents from Blocks 116 and 117 at Marsiling Rise.

Now, the trees look likely to be cut down, giving rise to the question of whether town councils should follow the letter of the law in disallowing the planting of trees and plants in common areas - or if they can show some discretion when residents take ownership of their surroundings.

Sembawang Town Council is planning to remove the "unauthorised planting" in the turf area between two residential blocks.

Dismayed about the decision conveyed in a notice last month, 31 residents sent the town council a petition on Nov 5.

"Political leaders have exhorted us to develop a sense of pride in our community, and we have taken this to heart and have spent money tending to our garden," wrote retired doctor Praema Raghavan, who has spotted Golden Orioles, Munias, Koels, Bulbuls among the trees.

But the plea failed to persuade the town council.

On Monday, the group spotted contractors surveying the area, two weeks after the last correspondence from the town council explaining why it could not accede to their request.

In an email to Dr Praema, senior property manager Terence Chan said: "While it has been our town council's policy to allow planting by residents, the plants should be kept in pots neatly arranged in front of their flat units.

"For residents who wish to carry out in-ground planting, we have also worked with the Residents' Committee to provide a community garden at Blk 116 for such activity.

"We believe this is a more balanced approach in catering to the hobby and community bonding of residents as well as maintaining the aesthetics of the estate."

According to Dr Praema, the plot of land where the trees are located had been saved once before.

This time, though, Member of Parliament Hawazi Daipi said he learnt of the situation only when contacted by MediaCorp.

Efforts by housing board residents to take ownership of their community have been in the news recently, for example, when the HDB set up a new community relations department.

And at a ministerial walkabout in October, Minister Lim Hwee Hua praised a petition by another group of residents, who were trying to convince the National Parks Board to allow them access to tend their herb garden at Bishan Park while the latter was undergoing upgrading.

"This is a very good reflection of a sense of ownership," Mrs Lim had said.

Dr Praema is still hoping that Marsiling Rise residents' efforts will similarly not go to waste.

"The garden has educational value. Kindergarten teachers bring their kids here for excursions," she told MediaCorp.


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Turning disability into capability

Straits Times 2 Dec 09;

Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam was interviewed by Bruce Nussbaum of BusinessWeek at the ICSID World Design Congress on Nov 23. We carry today an edited excerpt of the interview, which took place at the Suntec City Ballroom.

How did Singapore create itself over the past 50 years, and come to be as it is today?

Our advantage is the fact that we are just a small piece of rock, nothing under the ground, no minerals. Only a collection of people, who were not meant to come together as a country. That has been our advantage, because our only basis for survival is to invest consistently in every talent and skill, and be willing to do something differently - different from other cities in Asia, and different from the rest of the world.

I was at the Marina Barrage recently with a group of residents from my constituency. The Barrage converts rainwater and sea water into a freshwater reservoir using advanced membrane technologies, developed over the years. It also uses the best foreign technologies - a Dutch company supplied seven massive pumps. People were flying kites on top of the structure, itself really beautiful. So it is now also a lifestyle venue.

It's an example of how we turn disability - the fact that we have no natural resources - into capability, using science and technology and by borrowing the best from the rest of the world. So I think that's at the heart of it: the vulnerability, the constant state of anxiety. That is the way we know we've got to be a little more ingenious than others.

What seems to be a very important issue here is generating local talent, bringing in external talent and integrating it. How does that work?

About one-third of our population is foreign-born, as it is in London. In New York, about 45 per cent of the adult population is foreign. But the big difference is that London is part of Britain, and only 10 per cent or less of the British population is foreign-born. New York is part of the United States, and the Americans know it is their country. We are both city and country, and that's our challenge.

We can survive only if we are a global city. We've got to be as open as other global cities, a place where people can spend part of their lives regardless of where they come from. But we've also got to be a country for our own citizens. That means managing this place not just as an economy or a conglomeration of businesses, but also as a society - an inclusive society that nurtures every citizen to reach his or her highest potential in life.

Singapore's success has come in large part from the technology and engineering-centred, top-down economic and social model. It is a model of efficiency. In 2003, the Economic Review Committee recommended remaking Singapore into a centre of creativity, originality and innovation. Now these capacities are associated with a different model - a human-centred, social science, bottom-up model. My question is how successful is Singapore today in making this transition to this current model?

We are doing more and need to do more to create an environment that depends on ideas coming up from individuals, and not just system efficiencies. We need the effervescence of ideas coming up naturally through the schools, through the polytechnics, our technical colleges or ITEs (Institutes of Technical Education) and our universities. The whole thrust of educational policy in the last decade has been to give these ideas and new types of talents the maximum chance of emerging.

It is a difficult exercise, because meritocracy is fundamental to Singapore, and standardisation comes very naturally to meritocracies. Standardisation is a disadvantage in education if we are trying to breed different types of talent. So how we break out of this is by creating different pathways from the mainstream, each of them meritocratic, where you have to show that you've got something different from the rest.

To get into the School of the Arts is highly competitive. But you are measured not just on your exam scores, but also on whether you can show through your track record and at the audition that you have something different. We are also doing it in the sciences, in design and applied technology, and in many public schools that are offering their own niches of excellence. Our schools and teachers are being given autonomy. We've learnt from the best private schools in the US and elsewhere, and brought the lessons into a publicly funded, meritocratic system. So it is this mix of planning, top-down support and ground-up initiative that's driving education.

We shouldn't try to be like someone else. Zurich doesn't try to be like San Francisco or London. It doesn't try to be like the most exciting cities. But Zurich attracts talent, especially talent with families. It's got its own edge, and it is a very attractive city.

We have to be ourselves. And that means not abandoning our strengths. I think our cardinal strength is our ability to integrate people of very different cultures, people who in fact started off with very different aspirations although we're now converging. That doesn't happen by chance. It happens through careful planning, and sometimes intrusive regulation.

There's nothing more intrusive than our rules: For example, requiring every public housing precinct and every block to have a spread of ethnic groups. That's also how you ensure that the primary schools around the corner have the spread of ethnic groups. And how we get a convergence of aspirations and a sense of sameness in each new generation. We can't leave these things to the market, or let things splinter the way we can all see happening in some other parts of the world.

It requires advance planning, and a consensus between the people and the Government - that this is the way we want to go. If we were a city among many in the country, it wouldn't matter. If San Diego goes down, Austin, Texas will come up or someone else comes up. But if we go down, the country goes down.

So it requires a steady hand, always looking over the horizon. We don't leave things entirely to chance. That's a disadvantage in some ways but it's also the way we survive and how Singapore stays relevant.

I was out birding yesterday with my wife and one of the places we went to look at birds was an old British air force base that has been transformed into a Singapore aerospace area. I wanted to ask you: What are the kinds of industries that you think Singapore should be getting into at the very high end of manufacturing?

First, we build on existing capabilities. The example you gave, of aerospace, is an interesting one. It's built on precision engineering and electronics capabilities, both existing industries. Existing capabilities don't die. We take them, build adjacent capabilities, develop new industries and jump onto new curves.

It's not something you can plan for well in advance, because you don't know how the world will change. But if you keep investing in your capabilities, businesses will grow.

ST Aerospace is now the leading company globally, in third-party maintenance and repair. It is not owned by an airline, and has no captive client. How did they do it without a national airline feeding them with contracts? By building capabilities.

What about the medical sphere? How is that doing?

It's a growth industry globally, and we are well positioned to participate in it. Companies in the biomedical field tell us the main advantage of Singapore is the fact that we are English-speaking and we have in the same laboratories and buildings people from all over the world. There's no formula but there's real advantage in bringing together people who've grown up differently and worked in different parts of the world.

I think heterogeneity now is a great driver of growth as opposed to homogeneity, which can actually dampen growth. And that is a major strength for Singapore.

Forty years after we started, it has turned out to be a great asset in a knowledge-based world. We are the natural place in Asia for Indians, Chinese and South-east Asians to feel at home.

What other industries do you think Singapore is into and should be into at that level?

The whole area of urban solutions is a massive opportunity. What is happening in Asia today and over the next 20 years is a tremendous social transformation and a huge challenge - making cities liveable, managing water resources and sanitation, keeping the air clean and the place green. This is something where Singapore has built up a solid experience, and something we can share and participate in.

Are you a little more optimistic today about the future of Singapore in the present global economy than you were perhaps a year ago, when things were pretty gloomy?

I'm more optimistic and it's not because we are past the worst of the crisis. There is tremendous opportunity coming up in Asia.

It is not just a story of Asia's rise, but about the East moving towards the West. It's about the huge infusion of knowledge and ideas that comes from borrowing practices from the West, in numerous fields. And it is also about the West moving to the East.

A few years ago, the global premiere of I La Galigo, a Buginese epic story about creation, took place in Singapore, before it was cast in Indonesia and the rest of the world. It is also interesting that Wu Guanzhong, one of the most significant artists in China and the world today, recently donated 133 of his best oil and ink pieces to Singapore. He did so because Singapore was where the East was moving to the West, and the West moving East.

That is our role as a global city in Asia. We are a meeting place, but never static, always borrowing ideas and influencing each other. And it will shape our society in ways that we cannot fully predict today.

The ICSID World Design Congress Singapore 2009 is a parallel event of the Singapore Design Festival, spearheaded by the DesignSingapore Council of the Ministry of Information, Communications and the Arts.


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