Singapore to study local impact of global climate change findings

Kimberly Spykerman Channel NewsAsia 28 Sep 13;

SINGAPORE: Significant changes in rainfall patterns and increased rising of sea levels by the year 2100 were among the findings of a global climate science study.

The findings were released by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Stockholm on Friday.

The Singapore government said it will contextualise the global findings and study their impact on the country so that resilience plans can continue to be reviewed and adjusted.

The changes revealed in the findings suggest that Singapore could see more intense and frequent bouts of heavy rainfall as a result.

In Singapore, the number of days each year with heavy rainfall of more than 70mm in an hour has already shown a spike.

It rose from five days in 1980 to 10 days in 2012.

The annual maximum rainfall intensity in an hour also increases from 80mm in 1980 to 107mm in 2012.

The findings also imply that increased temperatures, which Singapore experiences only occasionally now, could become the norm in the future.

Aggressive climate change could affect how Singaporeans carry out their daily activities and the way future infrastructure is planned.

The findings from the international study will be used to provide updated projections of aspects like temperature, rainfall and sea level changes in Singapore's second National Climate Change study.

This means the relevant government agencies will be well-prepared to cope with the impact of such changes in the future.

The second study will start in November this year.

The Centre for Climate Research Singapore will work with the UK Met Office to project climate parameters in greater detail to help the government better understand the local impact of climate change.

Dr Chris Gordon, director of the Centre for Climate Research Singapore at the Meteorological Service Singapore, said: "Heavy rainfall on the extreme end leads to flooding. This is the main impact of concern and so those projections need to be taken into account in terms of such things as the drainage infrastructure...

"These are already being taken into account in Singapore in the planning that's going on. But these updated projections will feed into that process to ensure it's robust against those future changes."

Separately, the second phase of the first National Climate Change study concluded this year.

This phase looked into the impact of climate change on issues such as public health, biodiversity, the energy consumption of buildings and urban temperature profile.

The findings have been disseminated to the relevant agencies to use in their resilience plans, which include enhancing the stability and connectivity of existing green areas and putting in place plans to better understand the effects of urbanisation together with climate change.

- CNA/ir

More intense and frequent rainfall expected
Neo Chai Chin Today Online 28 Sep 13;

SINGAPORE - Singapore and South-east Asia can expect more intense and frequent rainfall events in future, and extreme temperatures that the Republic currently experiences occasionally could become the norm.

Speaking to the media this afternoon (Sept 28), a day after the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Summary for Policymakers in Stockholm, the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) gave an overview of what the report’s findings mean for Singapore.

The South-east Asian region could see an increase in average temperature of 3 to 4°C by the period of 2081 to 2100 under the most severe climate change scenario, and a rise of 0.5 to 1°C under the least severe scenario, said CCRS director Dr Chris Gordon.

A 3 °C rise in average temperature over Singapore would mean:

- Daily maximum temperatures of 34 °C that now occur 10 per cent of the time, will become the average daily maximum

- A 25 per cent increase in rainfall rate for daily rainfall events every 20 years, from 294mm to 367mm

Already, Singapore’s rate of warming in the past 62 years was 0.26 °C per decade – more than double the global trend of 0.12 °C per decade. This could be due to regional variations in man-made global warming, long-term climate variability in the region and urbanisation.

Rainfall intensity in an hour has also increased from 80mm to 107mm between 1980 and last year, although it is currently not scientifically possible to attribute this to global warming.

Another IPCC finding of particular relevance to Singapore is the enhanced estimates of sea level rise, said Dr Gordon. The AR5 projects a rise of 0.26m to 0.82m by the period of 2081 to 2100, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. But specific projections for Singapore must take into account regional variations and local land movements, he said.

Research is being done by the Earth Observatory of Singapore to estimate the amount and rate of downward motion of land around the island that may result from a large earthquake in West Sumatra, which the observatory expects to take place in the coming decades.

Land subsidence will increase the rate of sea level rise – following the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake, parts of Thailand have been moving downward by up to 1cm yearly, according to Assistant Professor Emma Hill of the Earth Observatory.

The latest AR5 models will be used in Singapore’s Second National Climate Change Study, which began last November. Its first phase, consisting of climate projections, is expected to complete by end-2014. Together with the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, the CCRS will provide localised and updated projections of temperature, rain, wind and sea level changes.

The projections will then be used by infrastructure agencies for climate impact assessments, expected to end by 2015 or 2016, said Ms Wong Chin Ling, director-general of the Meteorological Service Singapore.

Dr Gordon said that IPCC findings, while not a surprise to climate scientists, provide stronger projections about intensity of rainfall for wet regions in the tropics and should give greater confidence to policymakers about what the effects of climate change actually are. The projections should aid planning in areas such as drainage going forward, he said.

NParks to work on enhancing resilience of eco-systems here: National Climate Change Study

Past fragmentation of Singapore’s forests make them vulnerable to future long-term changes such as increased likelihood or duration of drought, and higher average temperatures. This was among some of the findings of the recently-completed First National Climate Change Study, which were revealed today by the authorities. The National Parks Board plans to work with other agencies and the community to safeguard existing species, connect fragmented patches and enhance resilience of ecosystems.

In the areas of urban temperature profile and energy consumption, factors of greenery, building height and building density were found to strongly influence temperature at both the macro and micro levels. Climate change was found to have some impact on respiratory disease, although it is not the main factor. The National Environment Agency and Health Ministry are studying the relationship between climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall, and public health risks such as dengue fever. They will look into forecasting the risk of disease transmission under different scenarios.

Singapore could see hotter, wetter days next century
Feng Zengkun Straits Times 29 Sep 13;

Singapore should brace itself for hotter and wetter days in the next century.

The National Environment Agency (NEA) yesterday held its own briefing on what a long-anticipated global climate change study by a United Nations panel - which was released on Friday - means for Singapore.

According to NEA's preliminary findings, if the earth heats up by 2100 as expected, very heavy storms in Singapore will "very likely" become even more frequent and intense.

A 3 deg C rise in Singapore's temperature, for instance, means that a very heavy storm, which has a 1 per cent chance of happening in any given year, will be five times as likely to occur.

Heavy storms have already become more frequent here in the last few decades, according to the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS).

In 1980, there were only five days with rainfall of more than 70mm in an hour. That increased to 10 days last year.

The highest amount of rain which fell in an hour also increased from 80mm in 1980 to 107mm over the same period.

Hotter "temperatures that Singapore encounters occasionally now could become the norm in the future", the NEA added in a press statement.

Singapore has been heating up at a rate of 0.26 deg C every decade between 1951 and last year. This is twice the global trend of a 0.12 deg C rise every 10 years in the same period.

The difference may be partly due to urbanisation here, according to the NEA.

Singapore's average daily maximum temperature between 1972 and last year was 31 deg C, while the hottest recorded was 36 deg C in 1998.

The global study also suggested that both the extreme weather patterns related to the El Nino phenomenon could become more intense.

This may lead to drier weather in Indonesia and worsen the annual haze in Singapore, said CCRS director Chris Gordon, although he added that more detailed studies were needed.

The NEA said it would use the global study's findings in its Second National Climate Change Study, expected to be completed by next year. This will provide local projections for temperature, rainfall, wind and sea levels up to 2100.

The findings will be handed over to the relevant agencies for their own studies on how Singapore can cope with the climate changes. These are expected to be finished by 2016.