Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts

Singapore’s total population inches up to 5.64 million, after flat growth last year

TODAY Online 28 Sep 18;

SINGAPORE — After posting the slowest growth in more than a decade last year, Singapore's total population size has rebounded slightly, based on government statistics released on Thursday (Sept 27).

As of June, Singapore’s total population stands at 5.64 million — inching up by 0.5 per cent over the past year. The population growth was almost flat (0.1 per cent) between June 2016 and June 2017.

The slight increase this time was “mainly due to stable growth in the citizen population”, said the latest annual population brief issued by the Prime Minister’s Office Strategy Group, in collaboration with partner agencies.

The citizen population grew by 1 per cent, to reach 3.47 million as of June. Both the number of permanent residents (PRs) and the non-resident population remained “relatively stable” at 0.52 million and 1.64 million respectively.

However, the citizen population continues to age, with 15.2 per cent aged 65 and above compared with 14.4 per cent last year.

The flat growth between June 2016 and June 2017 was because of fewer citizen births and a drop in non-resident population driven by a decline in foreign employment.

Over the past year, foreign employment continued to fall, but at a slower rate. Excluding foreign domestic workers, foreign employment shrank by about 10,000 — mainly due to a drop in the number of work-permit holders in the construction and marine shipyard sectors. In comparison, foreign employment fell by about 36,000 between June 2016 and June 2017.

RISE IN SINGLEHOOD, FALL IN CITIZEN BIRTHS

The report also highlighted a growing proportion of singles among citizens across most age groups last year, compared to a decade ago. The biggest increase was among female citizens aged 25 to 29, where the proportion of singles rose from 60.9 per cent to 68.1 per cent.

For male citizens in the same age group, the proportion increased from 77.5 per cent to 80.7 per cent. For most other age groups, a similar trend of rising singlehood was observed.

As for the number of citizen births last year, it fell about 2.4 per cent to 32,356, compared with 33,167 in 2016.

This was still higher than the average of the past decade of about 32,200 citizen births.

In March, Mrs Josephine Teo, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office, revealed that Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 1.16 last year — the lowest since 1.15 in 2010.

The population brief attributed the fall partly to “a larger cohort of young Singaporeans (aged 19 to 29 in 2017) — many of whom are children of baby boomers — who are entering the peak childbearing ages, but have not yet had children”.

The TFR has fallen in recent years: It stood at 1.25 in 2014, and fell to 1.24 and 1.2 in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Speaking on population strategies at the Committee of Supply debate then, Mrs Teo said in Parliament that at the current TFR and if there was no immigration at all, Singapore’s citizen population will shrink in the long term. “At around the current rates of immigration, we are close to achieving the same effect as if we had full-replacement TFR. Therefore, we do not expect any major changes to our immigration policy presently,” she said.

OTHER KEY STATISTICS

IMMIGRATION

Last year, there were 22,076 new Singapore citizens and 31,849 new PRs. In comparison, the figures were 22,102 and 31,050 in 2016.

The number of citizenships granted includes children born overseas to Singaporean parents. Last year, such children made up 7 per cent (or about 1,600) of the new citizens.

The Government noted that since the tightening of the immigration framework in late 2009, there have been about 30,000 new PRs a year. “This keeps the PR population size stable, and provides a pool of candidates who may be suitable for citizenship. The majority of our PRs are in the prime working ages of 25 to 49 years,” it said.

MARRIAGE

Last year, there were 24,417 citizen marriages, up from 23,873 in 2016. In the past decade, this has averaged about 22,500.

More than one in three citizen marriages last year involved transnational couples. Over the past 10 years, there is also a steady increase in inter-ethnic marriages, with about one in five citizen marriages being between persons of different races.


Singapore population reaches 5.64 million, with 30,000 more citizens
Rachel Au-Yong Straits Times 27 Sep 18;

SINGAPORE - The total population here grew by 0.5 per cent in the 12-month period ending in June 2018 to reach 5.64 million, an increase of 30,000 buoyed mainly by births among Singaporeans as well as the addition of new citizens.

The new rate is an increase over the previous 12-month period when the population grew by 0.1 per cent, which was the slowest in more than a decade.

Of the 5.64 million, the number of Singapore citizens went up to 3.47 million, according to the annual Population in Brief report, released on Thursday (Sept 27).

The rest comprises permanent residents and non-residents, who include people who are here to work, their dependants and international students.

The number of PRs remained relatively stable at 0.52 million while that of non-residents totalled 1.64 million.

There was a slight decline in foreign employment, of around 10,000 people, during the 12-month period. This was mainly due to the decrease in the number of Work Permit Holders in the construction and marine shipyard sectors.

Meanwhile, the number of citizen births totalled 32,356, a 2.4 per cent drop against that in 2016.

Still, the figure is higher than the average of the past decade of about 32,200 births.

The resident total fertility rate, however, fell from 1.20 in 2016 to 1.16 last year - the lowest in seven years. The rate needed to replace the population is 2.1.

On the other hand, Singapore continues to age, with 15.2 per cent of the people aged 65 and older compared with 14.4 per cent in the previous period.


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Asia's rising appetite for meat, seafood will 'strain environment'

Michael Taylor Thomson Reuters Foundation 4 Sep 18;

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 4 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Asia’s growing appetite for meat and seafood over the next three decades will cause huge increases in greenhouse gas emissions and antibiotics used in foods, researchers said on Tuesday.

Rising population, incomes and urbanisation will drive a 78 percent increase in meat and seafood demand from 2017 to 2050, according to a report by Asia Research and Engagement Pte Ltd, a Singapore-based consultancy firm.

“We wanted to highlight that, because of the large population and how fast the population is growing, it is going to put a strain on the environment,” said co-author Serena Tan.

“By recognising this and where it comes from, we can tackle the solutions,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

With supply chains ramping up to meet demand, greenhouse gas emissions will jump from 2.9 billion tonnes of CO2 per year to 5.4 billion tonnes - the equivalent of the lifetime emissions of 95 million cars - the researchers said.

A land area the size of India will be needed for additional food production, according to the report, while water use will climb from 577 billion cubic meters per year to 1,054 billion cubic meters per year.

The use of antimicrobials - which kill or stop the growth of micro-organisms, and include antibiotics - will increase 44 percent to 39,000 tonnes per year, said the report, which was commissioned by the Hong Kong-based ADM Capital Foundation.

Overuse and misuse of antibiotics in food is rife in Southeast Asia, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said this year, warning of serious risks for people and animals as bacterial infections become more resistant to treatment.

Growing urban areas contribute to the rising demand for meat and seafood, because people there usually have better access to electricity and refrigeration, said David Dawe, a senior economist at the FAO in Bangkok.

“But income growth is the big driver,” he added.

Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Pakistan are among nations likely to contribute most to the rise in meat and seafood consumption, while countries with ageing populations, like China, will likely limit growth, Tan said.

Food producers can increase efficiency by implementing rainwater harvesting, using sustainable animal feed and capturing biogas from cattle, Tan said.

Regulators, consumers and investors can also pressure restaurant chains and producers to limit the use of antibiotics in meat supplies, she added.

At meal times, consumers can also choose plant-based foods made to look like meats as an alternative, Tan said.

“You have a lot of people in Asia who don’t get that great a diet so animal-sourced food intake will increase,” said the FAO’s Dawe.

“In many ways it’s a good thing for nutrition, but it does raise environmental issues.”

Reporting by Michael Taylor, Editing by Jared Ferrie


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Shaping the future of Singapore’s heartlands

CHEONG KOON HEAN Today Online 25 Apr 18;

Amidst Singapore’s demographic changes, the threat of climate change, and trends such as Singaporeans increasingly working from home and turning to shopping online, how can public housing continue to evolve to better meet the needs of residents? Addressing this issue at an IPS-Nathan lecture on Monday (April 23), Housing and Development Board CEO Dr Cheong Koon Hean spelt out how Singapore’s largest developer plans, designs, harnesses technology and reaches out to the community to help build better homes for Singaporeans and to foster a stronger community spirit. Below is an excerpt of the lecture, the final in a series of three lectures.

Someone once told me that in Singapore, HDB flats are ‘like the air we breathe’.

They are so much a part of our life because more than 80 per cent of our residential population live in them.

Even if you do not live in an HDB flat, you would have used some of the amenities in an HDB town, be it to frequent the market or hawker centre, the neighbourhood shop or clinic.

The public housing programme implemented by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) over the last 57 years has provided affordable housing for the people of Singapore. By and large, HDB has provided a comfortable and convenient living environment for its residents.

Going forward, there will be trends that will impact our HDB towns.

So what are the considerations that will influence the way in which we should plan and build our towns?

In this lecture, I would like to focus on how HDB plans, designs, harnesses technology and reaches out to the community to help build better homes together.

Singaporeans are living longer and having fewer babies. By 2030, the number of Singaporeans aged 65 and above will double to 900,000, making up 25 per cent of the population, from just one in eight today.

The planning of towns and estates must consider the change in social composition and demographics.

We need to meet the continuum of needs of our residents as they age.

Our designs should include suitable accommodation for them, complemented by services that take care of their social well-being and healthcare needs so that they can age-in-place.

For example, elderly residents seeking independent living may now prefer to buy a smaller flat as it is easier to maintain.

These should be close to neighbourhood amenities and public transport for convenience, and be served by healthcare and elderly activity centres.

In terms of detail design, universal design principles should be applied within the flat and in public areas, so that mobility is not impeded.

We want to encourage and enable the elderly to be physically and mentally active in and outside their homes, so that they are not socially isolated.

As a small city state, Singapore is inevitably a high density environment. However, through innovative planning and design solutions, planners and architects can create ‘liveable density’ so as to continue to ensure a pleasant living environment.

Climate change is another phenomenon that we must consider in the formulation of our plans. Increased urbanisation and economic activities globally has led to higher carbon emissions and an upward trend in temperatures.

Since 1972, Singapore has experienced an increase in warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in cool days and cool nights. From 1980 to 2016, annual total rainfall rose at an average rate of 101 millimetres per decade.

It is projected that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events will increase as the world gets warmer.

These climatic changes require us to plan and build in a more sustainable way.

Our buildings should be designed to reduce energy use and to encourage natural cooling rather than the use of air conditioning.

Today, HDB already uses renewable energy, such as energy generated from solar panels. There are opportunities to use less water and reduce waste, and to re-use and recycle whenever possible.

Innovative ways, such as the adoption of water sensitive urban design could be used to mitigate floods. We should strive to build greater resilience into our infrastructure.

Recognising that our towns will mature and age over time, HDB has already been carrying out extensive estate renewal and upgrading of several towns since the 1990s.

Where possible, the cycle of improvements and rejuvenation should continue, the pace of which will be subject to the availability of resources.

This will ensure that our towns remain a pleasant place to live, and municipal and estate services are well maintained.

We now have a much more diverse population as we begin to see more inter-ethnic and transnational marriages.

More new citizens have also joined us in recent decades. These trends will increase our diversity in culture, language and lifestyle.

The complexion of our estates will evolve organically with this change in social composition. We need to find ways to increase community connections so as to promote better understanding and social cohesion amongst residents in our towns.

The use of design and technology to encourage greater inclusivity and to facilitate social interactions becomes even more important. If we can do this successfully, it will help to create a cultural richness and a new definition of the community spirit.

At the same time, with increasing wealth and education, we are mindful that people do value their privacy and personal space more.

Whilst some may advocate the return of the traditional slab block and common corridor design to encourage more neighbourly encounters, the reality is that the majority of our residents prefer a building layout, which gives them more privacy.

Building the ‘Kampung Spirit’ will require new design interpretations.

More creative designs should strike a balance between building community and making available multiple layers of different spaces – a gradation of public, semi-public and private space.

More and more people are now connected through social media regardless of where they live. We can no longer define ‘neighbours’ by proximity and distance alone.

Whilst promoting neighbourly ties by physical design remain important, we need to recognise the presence and power of online communities.

By leveraging technology, virtual communities can nourish a sense of belonging and civic-mindedness, involving more people to shape and take greater ownership of the environment that they are living in.

Netizens with common interests can be brought together to enliven community life. A matching of skills to needs, and bringing together of residents with common interests across online communities, could also be constructive ways to engender a kampung spirit.

ANTICIPATING DIGITAL AND TECHNOLOGY CHANGES

Technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will impact almost every aspect of the town, affecting the way we live, work, play and learn.

The nature of employment is likely to become more transient with the advent of the gig economy and new freelance jobs.

It was reported that in 2017, there are about 167,000 individuals in freelance work as their primary job.

More people will also turn to telecommuting and home offices to perform various jobs from the comfort of their home. These are potential considerations for future flat designs.

In fact, some 17,000 HDB flats already operate as home-offices today. How can we better support citizens in these new roles?

For example, we could provide more flexible living spaces that could accommodate suitable types of work that can be done in a home environment, supported by digital infrastructure.

As the home businesses grow, we could consider providing shared working spaces nearby in the neighbourhood or town centres which allow these businesses to expand into, and provide connectivity facilities and spaces for larger group meetings.

These spaces would encourage greater entrepreneurship and facilitate start-ups.

Our commercial complexes and shops in the heartlands serve an important social role.

They provide convenience and more affordable goods and services for residents. Entrepreneurs just starting out can find more affordable rentals within the heartland shops.

Many of the shops serve as social nodes, particularly the coffee shops where people meet over a cuppa. Residents enjoy familiarity with the shop keepers unlike larger shopping malls with chain stores.

At the same time, omni-channel shopping has been growing in popularity. Some have projected that by 2028, the e-commerce market will grow by more than five times, it would be worth up to S$7.5 billion, and make up 6.7 per cent of all retail in Singapore.

HDB shops need to evolve to cater to the changing shopping preferences of consumers. We could rethink the design of our HDB commercial centres towards a more ‘experiential’ focus, to attract footfall. In terms of trade mix, more personalised services could be introduced.

For example, Nespresso provides a personalised coffee experience by baristas at a tasting bar.

With online shopping, the design of neighbourhoods should be more delivery-friendly. This could mean providing more drop-off and parcel collection points for each block and precinct.

The potential introduction of autonomous vehicles will also impact the way we plan our towns for commute. The Land Transport Authority’s (LTA) push towards a car-lite environment and the introduction of autonomous buses require us to rethink the road system in our towns.

For example, priority may be given to bus transit corridors while reducing the number of lanes for cars. Many of our multi-storey car parks could be repurposed or redeveloped, should car ownership fall.

A ROADMAP TO BETTER LIVING

HDB ramped up its building programme from 2010 onwards to meet the surge in demand for public housing.

Between 2010 and 2017, we launched about 167,000 units of flats. This is equivalent to about five Toa Payoh towns, all launched within the short span of eight years.

This is a massive building programme. However, it provided a golden opportunity for HDB to develop a new generation of public housing that would take into consideration the various trends I highlighted above.

Rather than just doing more of the same, we wanted to refresh our public housing towns and developments so that they will meet the changing lifestyle needs and rising aspirations of our people.

In 2011, we launched the HDB Roadmap to Better Living, which will guide our large development programme over the next few decades. The goal is to build well-designed and community centric towns which are sustainable and smart. Let me share how this roadmap will impact the future of Heartland Living.

Thrust 1: Well-designed towns

HDB does not only build housing. As a master planner and developer, HDB is in the business of developing entire townships.

Over the years, the physical planning of HDB towns has evolved in tandem with the changing socio-economic and demographic conditions of Singapore.

With the ramp-up of our building programme since 2010, we have had the opportunity to formulate several new master plans for areas such as Punggol North, Bidadari, Tampines North and Tengah.

These plans have incorporated new fresh ideas, including the following:

1.1) More distinctive neighbourhoods and districts

HDB aims to create more distinctive identities for a new generation of towns in green field sites and in larger areas of older estates that will undergo redevelopment and rejuvenation. Building ‘identity’ can help us to better root residents to home and community. In our planning, we capitalise on ‘heritage and place character’ to safeguard social memories and to create a stronger sense of belonging.

1.2) Living in Green to mitigate high densities

Our homes will be nestled within a garden as we introduce more tropical green and blue water elements in our planning and design.

These elements provide the green lungs and recreational spaces to relieve urban density.

More blue elements, such as ponds and streams, will be weaved in with the landscaping – these elements will be multi-functional, serving to collect storm water, and provide aesthetic and recreational features for the towns.

1.3) Develop New Building Typologies and Layouts

We have adopted new building typologies and flat layouts to meet changing lifestyle needs, providing variety and choice, as well as adding interesting features to the townscape.

In addition to the traditional tower and slab blocks, we have introduced typologies such as courtyard housing, terraced housing, housing with decked roof gardens, etc.

Sky gardens and terraces will also be selectively introduced to provide residents with more spaces to relax and to interact.

The interior of the flat unit is also undergoing change to meet new lifestyle needs and trends. Kitchen walls have recently been done away with as many young couples prefer open kitchens. Columns are pushed to the sides wherever possible so that residents can have more flexibility in reconfiguring their flat layout.

All these improvements enable residents to stamp their flat’s interior with their very own personality.

1.4) A car-lite environment

In line with national efforts, HDB also aims to develop a ‘car-lite’ environment by encouraging the use of public transport. Almost all our towns are well served by a rail network and well connected bus routes to encourage the use of public transport.

Recognising that some may still need to use a car occasionally, LTA has worked with HDB to launch the national Electric Vehicle Car-Sharing Programme in 2017 where 1,000 cars supplied by BlueSG are being deployed in stages for our residents’ use.

In addition, MOT/ LTA are exploring a pilot deployment of Autonomous Vehicles as a form of public transport in Punggol and Tengah towns as well as in the Jurong Innovation District from 2022.

To promote the use of alternative modes of transport, comprehensive cycling networks are being weaved into HDB towns to encourage cycling and the use of personal mobility devices. The cycling network will also link to parks and park connectors.

Towns will be planned to be even more pedestrian-friendly with conveniently connected footpaths, covered link ways, and second storey connections where appropriate, which connect precincts and also lead directly to the aboveground MRT/ LRT stations.

2) Designing an Environment for All Ages

Today, HDB already adopts universal design principles – to ensure that the built environment is usable and accessible to everyone, regardless of age and physical ability.

All new flats come with no steps, toilets that can accommodate a wheelchair, and rocker switches which are suitable for the elderly.

All existing towns have been retrofitted with ramps to facilitate wheelchair mobility. Through the Lift Upgrading Programme, a majority of flats have access to a lift on every floor.

HDB has actively looked into special housing typologies that are more tailored to elderly needs. Today, a range of housing choices are available for our elderly.

3) Creating Synergies from Integrated Developments

HDB has been co-locating our residential blocks with smaller, compatible facilities such as precinct shops, childcare centres, active ageing hubs, and other social services.

However, as integrated developments can yield greater convenience and potential synergies between mixed uses, HDB will consider building larger integrated developments where appropriate.

Thrust 2: Community-centric towns

Beyond being just a provider of homes, HDB also builds active and cohesive communities anchored on the three pillars of ‘software, hardware and heartware’.

Software – To foster social cohesion, the Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP) has been a key policy pillar on which we have managed to maintain a good ethnic mix in HDB estates for racial integration and harmony.

In recent years, we have introduced the Singapore Permanent Resident (SPR) Quota which was layered over the EIP to facilitate better integration of SPR households in public housing estates.

Hardware – With the community in mind, HDB plans and designs shared spaces and facilities such as civic plazas, void decks and community living rooms, common green spaces and even 3-generation playgrounds to encourage the mixing of different age groups.

In addition, we have different flat types for each precinct and block to encourage a more socially inclusive environment.

HDB estates host a wealth of spaces where residents get to meet their neighbours incidentally (i.e. unplanned) and convivially (i.e. planned).

In a HDB-NUS study in 2014, it was found that HDB lift lobbies and void decks are conducive spaces for interaction, followed by coffee shops and retail shops.

There was positive correlation between amenities usage and a sense of attachment and belonging.

Therefore, well-planned and designed spaces and amenities are critical, as residents who reported a higher level of amenities usage also reported a higher sense of attachment and belonging to their community.

In the design of its new generation towns, HDB has increased the provision of more social and communal places to encourage interaction.

These include large town plazas for larger group activities, various roof and sky rise gardens and community living rooms for smaller groups of residents.

Heartware – The Heartware, comprising people and community, is what makes a town and place endearing to its residents. In the past five years, HDB has stepped up community-building efforts by organising activities such as Welcome Parties and HDB’s Good Neighbours Awards.

Based on HDB’s Sample Household Survey 2013, some 98 per cent of the residents gave feedback that they feel a sense of belonging to their town. More than 85 per cent of residents interacted with neighbours of other ethnic groups and nationalities. There is also increasing participation in community activities.

HDB continues to build on these positive trends by encouraging more citizen participation. We would like our residents to play an active role in shaping their environment and to take greater ownership in caring for their town and to contribute to building up their community.

HDB therefore has many programmes to encourage greater citizen participation.

First, HDB works to nurture change makers. They help to promote the spirit of neighbourliness and eco-friendly living in the HDB estates. For example, we have ‘ambassadors’ comprising students from schools and retirees who volunteer and help spread the eco-living messages to residents.

Some of our volunteers may also initiate activities that add liveliness to places like civic plazas, and foster care and neighbourly relations through organised activities.

Other volunteers facilitate community conversations to build consensus on local development and rejuvenation plans.

For example, our resident volunteers and student facilitators from the tertiary institutions help to lead focus group sessions with our residents on how to improve their living environment.

Residents are often invited to help co-create places in their estates. One interesting project was the development of a ‘Social Linkway’ along a pedestrian corridor at Tampines that was very well used by residents as it leads to their neighbourhood centre.

Pop-up stations were set up along the corridor to gather ideas and inputs from residents who were making their way to the neighbourhood centre. Not only did the residents contribute ideas, they helped to implement several interesting activity nodes – one was for a neighbourhood incubator and others for play and learning. There is also an art link with artwork and murals contributed by the residents themselves.

To support ground-up ideas, HDB introduced a ‘Friendly Faces, Lively Places Fund’ in 2017. Residents are encouraged to draw on this fund to organise events together with their neighbours and the community

HDB also makes a point to consult the public on its plans. Numerous focus group discussions and exhibitions are held to gather ideas and suggestions for many of our plans before they are formulated or finalised.

Thrust 3: Sustainable and smart towns

As the largest housing developer in Singapore, HDB will play its part as a responsible developer to build sustainable towns.

Economic sustainability strategies focus on creating economic vibrancy and business diversity through the provision of innovative commercial facilities within the towns.

Environmental sustainability strategies are wide-ranging and include reducing carbon emissions, optimising the use of resources and achieving effective energy, water and waste management.

These will provide a clean, safe, healthy and comfortable living environment for our residents. Active research is being carried out by HDB in multiple areas on sustainability initiatives.

Mean sea level rise, particularly where it coincides with high tides, presents a risk of coastal inundation of buildings, infrastructure and assets.

Various coastal adaptation measures are already being studied by multiple agencies, such as permanent and demountable floodwalls, earth bunds, and flood gates with pumping stations.

Not many people are aware that HDB is one of the largest reclamation agencies in Singapore, having reclaimed much of the land in Singapore.

HDB would raise the minimum platform levels of reclaimed land to PUB’s prevailing codes to anticipate future sea level rise.

To cater to a rise in annual total rainfall, HDB has updated its design requirements to cater for this and reviewed its drainage requirements for all new projects.

HDB is also building up a deeper understanding of climate change issues. For example, it is carrying out research in the use of Urban Water Modelling to simulate water flow and flooding in typical and extreme rainfall conditions so that we can better optimise our water sensitive urban design, and detention and retention features to mitigate flood risks.

THE SMART HDB TOWN

In line with Singapore’s aspirations to become a Smart Nation, HDB will tap on significant innovations in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to develop smarter HDB towns – making them more liveable, efficient, sustainable and safe.

(a) Smart Planning

Increasingly, HDB is using sophisticated state-of-the-art computer simulations and data analytics to improve the way we design and plan our towns, precincts and buildings. Collaborating with other agencies such as National Research Foundation (NRF), Singapore Land Authority (SLA) and the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), a 3-dimensional city model called Virtual Singapore has been developed which enables HDB to carry out applications like environmental modelling.

Using various computer models, the effects of sun, wind and noise can be simulated virtually so that we can improve our plans before actual development. For example, we could improve the placement and orientation of buildings to channel wind flow through the town to create a cooling effect and to improve air quality.

More greenery could also be introduced at hot spots to reduce heat build-up.

(b) Smart Environment

HDB is leveraging sensors to capture real time information about the environment, such as temperature and humidity.

Environmental data collected can be used to validate environmental models and carry out proactive upgrading of infrastructure in response to changing weather conditions in order to create a more pleasant environment for residents.

c) Smart Estate

Using ICT, we can monitor various estate services such as lighting, pumps, solar panels and lifts to better manage the services within the town.

HDB has developed a Smart Hub which will serve as a central repository of information received from these sensors, so that data analytics can be carried out to improve the performance and reliability of these services.

With artificial intelligence, predictive studies can also be carried out. Such data analytics could facilitate pro-active detection and intervention to minimise disruption to services.

HDB is also looking into the use of drone technology for façade inspections. Working with the Town Councils, it will enable timely repairs to be made.

d) Smart Living

HDB is building ‘smart-enabled’ homes in our test beds so that residents can benefit from the various smart home applications provided by commercial companies. Such applications include the Elderly Monitoring and Utility Management Systems.

e) Smart Community

With the collection of data and opinion surveys on demographics, social trends, and lifestyle preferences, HDB would be able to better understand residents’ needs and preferences. Suitable applications can be developed to bring communities closer together and empower residents to take greater ownership of their environment, such as in the way common spaces are designed. Data can also be used to nudge residents with gamification tools to help promote eco living lifestyles.

HDB is mindful that its research cannot be limited to only technology and engineering solutions. To have a better understanding of societal needs and human behaviour, its research would include social and behavioural studies, which can then better inform HDB of its policy and spatial solutions.

Hence, HDB has recently linked up with the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) to carry out an extensive research programme called the New Urban Kampung Programme. The findings from this research programme will help to steer HDB in its planning and design of the HDB towns.

Using a combination of data from traditional surveys, from sensor networks placed around the estate and through engaging the community on and offline, we can better understand our resident’s preferences and formulate more targeted improvements in our towns.

For example, residents may now place thermal comfort, access to amenities and urban greenery at higher priority.

HDB’s designs should take these preferences into consideration. Sensors that identify patterns of movement can help HDB to identify under-utilised spaces and to fine-tune the design of these spaces to encourage higher usage.

The design of void decks can hence be improved to foster interaction.

Even as we develop a new generation of public housing, HDB has continued to upgrade our older towns/estates to keep them functional and pleasant to live in. HDB therefore has been ‘age-proofing’ its towns and flats since the 1990s through multiple upgrading programmes.

Our HDB towns will continue to be at the heart of Singapore living.

HDB has a huge task to develop and maintain an environment that will enable our people to live comfortably and to build families and friendships.

Planners and architects will need to draw on their creativity and resourcefulness to develop liveable environments within available land and resources.

HDB will also look to technology to set the stage for new urban solutions.

Today, in partnership with communities and residents, HDB is developing many exciting plans for our estates.

We know that HDB estates are not only about the physical buildings and infrastructure.

Our plans are only fully realised when they become homes for our communities and families. Our residents therefore play a very important role as they have a great impact on the living environment too.

They greatly influence the towns and neighbourhoods through their civic actions and consideration for neighbours, and their sense of ownership by caring for both their home and the surrounding environs.

HDB needs a strong partnership with Singaporeans to build a good home together.


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Population likely ‘significantly’ below 6.9 million by 2030: Josephine Teo

LOUISA TANG Today Online 1 Mar 18;

SINGAPORE — Singapore’s total population is likely to be below 6 million by 2020, and “significantly” below 6.9 million by 2030, said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Josephine Teo on Thursday (March 1) in Parliament.

The number of working-age Singaporeans (aged 20 to 64) is expected to peak at 2.2 million around 2020 and decline thereafter.

Immigrants are needed to prevent the population from shrinking in the long term, said Mrs Teo, who oversees the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD), at the Committee of Supply debate for the Prime Minister’s Office.

At current rates of immigration, Singapore is “close to achieving the same effect as if we had full-replacement Total Fertility Rate (TFR, of 2.1)”, she said. “Therefore, we do not expect any major changes to our immigration policy presently.”

As of June last year, the population of 5.61 million included 3.44 million citizens and 527,000 permanent residents, according to the Department of Statistics. Mrs Teo said 22,076 citizenships and 31,849 permanent residencies were granted last year.

The NPTD had said in the population White Paper in Jan 2013 that the Republic’s total population could range between 5.8 million and 6 million by 2020, and 6.5 million to 6.9 million by 2030. The 6.9 million figure sparked a public outcry and the Government said it was a not a forecast or target, but for planning purposes.

Today, total population growth has slowed considerably to 1 per cent per year over the last five years, compared to 3 per cent every year for the five years before that, said Mrs Teo.

Revealing that last year’s TFR fell to a 1.16 – the lowest since the rate of 1.15 in 2010 – after hovering around 1.2 in recent years, she explained the “apparent contradiction”, given the higher number of births in recent years.

Many children of baby boomers are about 20 to 30 years old today and are included in the denominator used to calculate the TFR. But compared to earlier cohorts, more of them are not yet married or have not started having children.

“When they do, we can expect the numerator, which is the number of births to increase further. TFR could then also increase,” said Mrs Teo.

Workforce growth will slow to about 1 to 2 per cent every year from now till 2020 – significantly less than in the past but “a more sustainable pace going forward”, she said.

The Government will continue to support higher participation in the labour force among Singaporeans, and “balance these efforts with a calibrated flow of foreign workers that complements our local workforce”.

“We are selective about the profile of our immigrants, because it affects how we grow a strong national identity,” Mrs Teo said. “This is why we prioritise not only those who can contribute, but those who are also prepared to sink roots in Singapore, and can integrate well here.”

The Government is also working on strengthening integration, she added. One in three marriages today are between a Singaporean and non-Singaporean.

Over the past three years, the National Integration Council has supported more than 320 ground-up integration projects by 150 organisations that encourage immigrants and locals to bond over interests such as sports and volunteerism.


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Dip in population density, but not in crowded feeling

Stagnation after rising for over a decade due to slower population growth and increase in land area
Joanna Seow Straits Times 16 Jan 18;

As Singapore's population growth slowed and the island increased in physical size, population density stagnated last year for the first time in more than a decade.

But though the objective measure says one thing, observers said the figures may not translate into people feeling spaces are less crowded - at least not immediately.

Population density rose between 1 per cent and 4.5 per cent annually from 2007 to 2016. But it fell slightly last year, official data shows. The average number of people per square kilometre dipped from 7,797 in 2016 to 7,796 last year.

As density is total population divided by land area, experts pointed to the recent slowdown in population growth as the main reason for the change.

"This is the result of a conscious decision by the Government to limit the number of new immigrants," said population expert and National University of Singapore (NUS) sociologist Jean Yeung.

Last year saw the first drop since 2003 in the number of foreigners living here. The non-resident population fell to 1.65 million, from 1.67 million in 2016. Residents - comprising Singaporeans and permanent residents - still grew, so all in all, total population increased by 0.1 per cent over the previous year.

Meanwhile, reclamation has boosted the island's size over the years. Singapore's land area grew to 719.9 sq km last year, up from 719.2 sq km the year before. A decade ago, the island's size was 700 sq km.

The stagnation in population density is likely to be a short-term phenomenon, said Institute of Policy Studies senior research fellow Leong Chan-Hoong. He noted that it may rise again after a few years as foreign manpower will likely be needed to supplement workers in critical service industries like healthcare as the population ages.

Among economies and countries, Singapore ranks third in density, according to the World Bank - behind Macau (20,204 people per sq km) and Monaco (19,250).

Among cities studied in a report by the Singapore think-tank Centre for Liveable Cities, Singapore ranks second, after Dhaka (13,547). Hong Kong (6,553) and London (5,210) are other dense cities in that report, while Berlin (192) and Nairobi (208) occupy the other end of the spectrum.

But experts pointed out that the population density measure does not fully capture the lived experience of crowdedness in a city.

Total land area may include uninhabitable areas such as hills. Also, people's experience depends on how infrastructure and other resources are managed.

"People may still feel it is equally dense or more dense because they may be spending a big part of their time in their workplace in the central business district (CBD) or industrial areas, which feel crowded," said Dr Leong, noting how density may feel different depending on which area one is in - at home, at work or in other parts of the city.

Associate Professor Pow Choon-Piew of the NUS geography department noted that many other cities with high population density - some higher than Singapore - are located within a larger country. This means people choose to live in those cities despite the density, for the sake of other benefits.

In Singapore, however, residents cannot move out of the city if they want to get away from the crowd, he said, adding: "While the statistics may show stagnation or marginal drop, people don't feel it on the ground, especially during peak hours, when crowds congregate in train stations or on the streets."

Other indicators like green space per capita or living space per household could better reflect the sensation of crowdedness, he said.

Over the years, the Government has made moves to ease the condition. Prof Pow said this includes building parks and sky gardens in neighbourhoods and reducing golf courses to free up space. Dr Leong said that moving work hubs further out of the CBD and increasing access to MRT stations are steps in the right direction.

Another suggestion made by veteran architect Tay Kheng Soon, an adjunct professor at NUS, is to redesign the country into many "modular cities".

The idea is to build cities of 1 sq km to house 100,000 people each, with 70 such units lining the island's circumference and the centre reserved for a forested catchment area. This ensures most of the island will be green space.

Buildings would see various functions stacked atop each other, with traffic flowing underground. Within each module, Mr Tay envisions schools, entertainment, businesses and community areas all connected along a central pathway so that more people can interact daily.

"The urban areas are surrounded by a ring of farms where people can go out to take a break, and the vibrancy of each module compensates for the density," he said.


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On the Record: Liu Thai Ker, architect and former master planner of Singapore

Bharati Jagdish Channel NewsAsia 7 Oct 17;

SINGAPORE: Award-winning architect, Liu Thai Ker, created controversy a few years ago when he said that Singapore’s urban planners need to design the city for a population of 10 million. At a time when some were voicing concerns about the pressures being put on infrastructure from a growing population - largely from overseas - many scoffed when he made that statement.

Today, he stands by it, saying it’s not too late to start planning infrastructure to accommodate a possibly larger population in the future. His motto is: if the economy grows and population grows, we need to be prepared for it.

Liu is the eldest son of artist Liu Kang and planned to follow in his father’s footsteps but circumstances railroaded his plans and he ended up studying architecture instead.

He doesn’t regret it one bit.

His career has seen him influence Singapore’s urban landscape as CEO of the Housing and Development Board (HDB) between 1979 and 1989 and as CEO and Chief Planner of the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) between 1989 and 1992. He’s also noted for being a proponent of heritage and nature conservation.

Today, he is the founding chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities and Senior Director of RSP Architects, leading master-planning and urban design efforts in more than 30 cities.

He went “On the Record” with Bharati Jagdish about why his own efforts to plan for a larger population failed, why having more people in Singapore won’t compromise liveability and why Singapore needs more intellectual thinkers.

They first talked about the factors that have influenced him the most over the years.

Liu Thai Ker: I grew up in the British colony. At that time, we didn't have nationality. I was just a British subject and later, during the Japanese Occupation, I just felt that if you don't have a strong country, you cannot really have your own dignity and have a good life. This influenced me greatly and later, when my mother succeeded in persuading me to become an architect, I thought I would. In those days, in the 1950s and 1960s in Singapore, three out of four people lived in squatter colonies. I thought I’ll grow up and help people build houses as an architect. But later, I felt that to be a good architect, I needed to know planning. I went to Yale to study city planning. All of this was designed to prepare myself to be ready to come back to Singapore to contribute to the building of the nation.

Bharati: You grew up in Malaya at a time when things were very different. How did living in a village, in a kampung, influence your work?

Liu: Initially, I lived in my grandparents’ house which was on the outskirts of Muar. It was a kampung environment - lots of vegetables and chickens and pigs and so on. Comparing the kampung life with urban life - with toilets, a clean water supply and so on - of course I wanted to be able to create an environment with those kinds of facilities. But on the other hand, having lived in a kampung and being close to animals, mud and vegetation, I also developed a feeling for nature and that also influenced my work later in life. We moved to Singapore after World War II.

In the 1950s, when the British were still our colonial masters, we had urban slums and squatters and the environment was not very clean. Even with your eyes closed, you’d be able to tell you were at the Singapore River because it smelled, it stank of the pollution and the buildings were old and dilapidated. People were poor.

My parents, despite the fact that they were schoolteachers, were desperately poor and I had to live in an environment that really would be considered by today’s standard, extremely poor. That was motivation for me to try to do something to change my life.

Just after the Second World War when the Japanese surrendered, we lived in Dhoby Ghaut. In the beginning, we had sewage collectors. They would walk through our house and collect the sewage in a bucket, then walk through our dining room and living room back to the truck with all that smelly waste. That is certainly not something that I would like to have in my life. In Muar, we would have to walk 10 to 15 kilometres to a wooden hut to use a toilet.

Bharati: You wanted to change your life, but you once said you wished you had worked to preserve a small part of the squatter areas. Did you ever experience that type of life?

Liu: No, I was a little better off than that but when I was in HDB, I used to visit squatter colonies. One day after the rain, I asked my HDB colleagues to walk with me along Redhill which is now called Redhill Estate. It was a squatter colony and as we were walking on the mud road, rainwater was still flowing down the sloping road. In the water, there was human faeces, pig faeces, rubbish and so on. If you don't ever get to see the actual environment, it’s very hard for younger generations of Singaporeans to understand where we came from. So that’s still my deepest regret. I should have saved one to three hectares of land which is not a lot compared to the size of Singapore. I should have saved one or two or three hectares of squatter areas, keeping them exactly as they were, including a lack of sanitation, and maybe including a standpipe. Nowadays, when I ask young Singaporeans in their 40s if they know what a standpipe is, nobody knows.

Bharati: What is it?

Liu: People in the squatter areas had no water supply to their homes, so the Government had to provide drinking water pipes in the area, not to every home, but every few metres, they put one. One pipe would serve a couple of dozen families. Every day, those families had to go to the standpipes to collect the water to bring back to their homes for drinking. So that was the kind of environment I was talking about.

The power of convincing the younger generation through photographs or words would not be as strong as if they saw the real thing. It’s something I only thought about recently. Today’s Singaporeans not only have all these modern facilities, they also have other amenities like schools and sports fields and so on. To let them have a comparison would make them more appreciative of what they have and maybe even also more appreciative of what the Government has done for them. If they are more appreciative, on the one hand, hopefully their attitude towards society would be more positive. And on the other hand, they would also be spurred to say, “Okay, if the earlier generation could make such big changes, why can’t we also carry on improving lives?” I hope it will spur them to make solid changes.

Bharati: You feel younger Singaporeans lack this ability?

Liu: Well, I certainly sound like a grumpy old man but it’s not just my opinion. Without soliciting, I often hear my Singaporean friends, including people 20 years younger than I am, saying that if Singaporeans could be more appreciative of what they already own, they may become happier people so that they would not just complain at the drop of a hat and if there’s something not right, instead of just complaining maybe try to do something about it.

Complaining doesn’t change your life. Noticing the imperfection and trying to do something to fix it would be more useful.

Bharati: You wanted to fix things through your architectural expertise, but I understand you actually wanted to be an artist like your dad. You said your mother persuaded you to become an architect. How did she do this, considering you were quite set on becoming a painter?

Liu: At the age of 17, I was thinking about my future because my parents had absolutely no money to send me to university. Someone asked me to be a substitute teacher in a primary school, so I did that. Some of the students in my class were 19 or 20 years old. They were older than me. Their studies had been affected by the Japanese Occupation. There were many years that they could not go to school. Through those few years of teaching, I accumulated some money. I thought that since my parents had totally no capability to send me to university, despite the fact that I had very good school results, why don't I just use the money to buy a passage to China and enroll in an art school. I announced it to my parents. I said, “In 2 weeks, I will be gone.” Of course my mother bawled her eyes out and told me not to do anything. She said, “Let me think of something else.” Remarkably, two days later, she found a solution. First, she persuaded me to do architecture because there was some art and creativity involved in that as well. And as an architect, I could lift the family from poverty to a better life. Secondly, at that time, the University of New South Wales had part-time courses, so that meant that I could work and study at the same time. That would make this journey more affordable for the family. So I thought, “Why not?” Frankly, in my mind I was thinking, “Okay, I will do something to make my mother happy, but after finishing university, I will go back to art.” Because of that thinking, when I went to Sydney I enrolled in art school to take art classes half-a-day every week. I did oil paintings, watercolour paintings. But by the time I finished my fourth year of a six-year part-time course, I started to realise that by being an architect I would be useful in taking Singapore out of its backward condition. I realised what architecture and planning could do for a nation. I decided to just spend my energy full-time on architecture.

SINGAPOREANS TOO PRAGMATIC, LACK INTELLECTUAL DEPTH

Bharati: Wouldn’t you say the arts would have been a useful contribution too?

Liu: To me, changing a person’s physical environment was a more immediate mission. But while you are changing a person’s physical environment or city’s physical environment, it doesn't preclude you from doing art. In fact, if we had better housing, schools and so on, we could actually give the people a better chance to be educated and therefore pursue their intellectual or cultural activities. So I saw the physical environment as a catalyst for culture as well. In the early days in Singapore, because of our utter poverty, the Singapore Government gave priority to physical improvement and cultural development came later.

Bharati: I ask you this also because you were chairman of the National Arts Council at some point. Some artists feel that even then, art should not have been an afterthought. In fact, sometimes, the best art emerges from strife and poverty. As someone with the instinct to be an artist, why don’t you see it that way?

Liu: Yes, actually, I personally feel that there’s a tendency among Singaporeans to see cultural activities as an additional activity, meaning you go into it only when you are free. I don't think that’s a good idea. You have a point. I totally agree that in a lot of countries, art and culture, art and living are totally integrated. Here, there’s a line drawn between living and art. I wish that this can be integrated. But at that time, I guess for me, it was a matter of choice and under those circumstances, I made the best choice I could. I hope that today, more will be done to integrate art education as part of living rather than something that’s an add-on. At the moment, cultural development tends to be a kind of entertainment. It’s not. It’s really an expression of living a life.

I personally also feel that in Singapore, if we were to stay on the forefront of nations, we not only have to look at further development of art, but also further development of intellectual thinking. I think we tend to be a little too pragmatic. It’s only through intellectual thinking that we can go deeper into a problem. By thinking more deeply, we can have invention.

My job takes me out of Singapore quite a bit. When a job needs to be done, it needs to be 100 per cent. A shallow person will get it 80 per cent done and consider the job done. They meet the basic requirements and don’t look deeply into doing it better. I do find quite a lot of that amongst Singaporeans. But I find when I give people from other countries a job, they might take a slightly longer time getting it done but by the time they come back, it’s 100 per cent done. When you do that, you are making progress, you are making headway that other people don't make. It’s something I do worry about.

Ours is basically a pragmatic society so if you get the job 80 per cent done and you feel that you can get by with your customers or your boss, you think, “Why not?” But when you do that, you would not go into other areas that people have not thought of.
To me, that is an innovative society. We need more people thinking like that.

This doesn't mean that we should abandon pragmatism. I think we should have everything - pragmatism, deeper intellectuals and appreciation of culture. We need all that.

Bharati: How do you think we can achieve this?

Liu: I feel that it has to start in school. We should ask more searching questions. I think when there’s a problem, we should not just stop at finding a solution. We should ask ourselves whether there is a way to do a better job than this? We need to have a greater emphasis on studying history and philosophy because through studying philosophy and history, you actually probe deeper into the subjects and that helps with intellectual depth. I was talking to an education expert from Scandinavia and asked him why arts education is important. He said it’s because it helps you imagine things. But he said you can do this in other aspects of education as well. When you teach a student a science subject or any other subject, you must take them through the class, not just by explaining what’s in the textbook, but going beyond that for them to think more deeply into the subject. So I said, “Then can we just do without arts education? If we can teach the other subjects in that way, why do we need arts education?” But he said “no” and said that arts education is very different from the other subjects because other subjects have boundaries. Arts education has no boundaries.

You have to keep probing deeper and deeper. So when we have arts education, we shouldn’t treat it as skills training in the sense that you just learn to play the piano well, or draw an apple. Treat it as an exercise in probing deeper and deeper into the unknown.

I think that can be very helpful. It’s an issue of what our definition of the purpose of arts education is. Technical training is important but on top of that, I think we need to use it as a medium to develop a person’s mind.

Bharati: Even today, when it comes to the arts, there are still issues of censorship and disagreement over state funding. If we have so many out-of-bounds (OB) markers in Singapore, can we truly have a vibrant arts education that encourages probing without boundaries in Singapore?

Liu: Personally, I feel that a society needs to have OB markers because otherwise, there will be a lot of conflicts.

Bharati: That’s an assumption that some people make. But couldn’t talking about difficult issues also bring enlightenment and understanding?

Liu: Yes. Actually that’s right. I personally feel that we certainly should talk about difficult issues, but not in an irresponsible way. In other words, you don't talk about something different or difficult for the sake of being different and difficult. You must have a basis for saying that. You must build up your argument for doing so. That requires intellectual depth.

I'm a little bit concerned that it’s now become fashionable to speak irresponsibly just to create controversy. Then you are seen as being very clever and people clap for you. To me, that is not healthy.
If you want to be different and you want to express new ideas, you have to build up a strong argument for it. That is a real intellectual depth.

10 MILLION STRONG POPULATION – AN “INEVITABLE REALITY”

Bharati: You yourself created controversy a few years ago when you said that Singapore’s urban planners should plan for a population of 10 million. Some say you made a good case for it. Others asked why you would even suggest having so many people populate this tight space.

Liu: If your economy is doing well, no government with any amount of power should stop population growth.

Bharati: But economic growth at what cost?

Liu: That’s why you need to be prepared. If you want your economy to grow, and your population grows but you are not prepared for it, you will have problems. If you plan well, the city can still be liveable. Singapore is unlike other countries. If you don't plan long-term, if you don't conserve your land carefully, use it efficiently, when you run out of land, you have no land to expand. You have limited land. So you have to use what you have more efficiently from the start to make sure you have enough for changing circumstances. To keep the economy growing, you need a growing population size. So what’s the reason for us not to plan long-term for large numbers just to make sure we can be self-sufficient.

"I learnt the lesson that population projections are really under-projections. I also learnt a second lesson because Singapore’s population grew faster than we could envisage in 1991," says Liu Thai Ker.

Bharati: We’ll talk about how you arrived at the figure of 10 million in just a moment, but you were CEO and Chief Planner of the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) between 1989 and 1992. Why didn’t you think that way then? Why didn’t you plan for a larger population? We could have avoided many of the overcrowding problems we’ve been facing for several years now.

Liu: At that time, I was already worried that if we did not plan well enough, we would run out of land. In other countries if they run out of land, they just go into the rural areas. If we run out of land, we will hit the international line and we can’t build anymore. Most planning would plan in horizon for about 15 to 20 years. I felt that we have to plan for long-term.

Bharati: But clearly, you didn’t.

Liu: Let me explain. We adopted an “X” year concept. We would plan for “X” years. It was a term used by me.

Bharati: Why “X”?

Liu: I decided to just use that term.

If I told the people in those days that I wanted to plan for a hundred years, I think I would be told off, maybe I would even lose my job because nobody did that.
Bharati: You were looking at 100-year horizon?

Liu: It was meant to be 100 years. We proceeded to check with some experts. I asked them what the population size would be in hundred years. At that time in 1991, we had 3.2 million and our economy was just starting to grow faster. Very few of them projected beyond 4.5 million in year “X”. I felt that it was just too modest, so I decided to look at it in terms of by 2091, based on the projections, we would have 5.5 million people.

Bharati: A gross underestimation.

Liu: Yes. By 2017, we already have 5.7 million. Did I make a mistake? Yes, but at least I jacked up the number beyond other people’s projections and secondly, being a very good Singaporean, I had the virtue of being kiasu. So despite that 100-year projection, I still kept a lot of land undeveloped so we would have room to play around with. I also negotiated with the Port of Singapore Authority for the ultimate boundary of land reclamation. Some of these are still not reclaimed, but it’s in the plan. There’s room for more. It’s just that our population projection was not accurate but name me one urban plan anywhere in the world where the population projection is accurate.

Bharati: Considering this, how did you even arrive at 10 million?

Liu: I learnt the lesson that population projections are really under-projections. I also learnt a second lesson because Singapore’s population grew faster than we could envisage in 1991. Why?

If your economy is doing well, no government with any amount of power can stop population growth unless you tell society, “Look, I don't want economic growth.” Then you can stop the population growth. Which government will want to do that?

In China they have the hukou system – a household registration system. They register in different districts. Despite this, Shanghai and Beijing cannot stop the population growth.

Bharati: But certainly, it shouldn’t be a case of economic growth at all costs, should it? These things need to be calibrated, not just because of the infrastructural issues, but social issues associated with uncontrolled population growth.

Liu: If you have made and implemented plans to accommodate population growth, the costs won’t be hard to bear. These are the lessons I’ve learnt. I still feel we need to face the inevitable reality of 10 million people.

Bharati: But if as you say, you can’t control or even accurately project population growth, how did you land on the 10 million figure and the need to plan for it? Why not 20 million or some other random figure?

Liu: Because I also read a UN report that said by 2075, the world can no longer support population growth. Between now and 2075, the world population may double but by then, the world’s resources can no longer support growth.

Bharati: There might be technological solutions for that, or not. The point is, even that’s not certain.

Liu: Yes, but based on that, I thought of 10 million almost like the ultimate number. But even if we plan this, I personally would still want to reserve some land just in case the UN prediction is not right.

Bharati: You’ve said we can plan for 10 million and accommodate 10 million people without losing green spaces and heritage and conservation areas and buildings. How?

Liu: I know Singapore’s land situation quite well and I feel that despite my proposal for 10 million, there will be enough land, including the future reclaimed land. We should keep all the interesting parts – historical areas, bungalows and even golf courses because we need all of this, to be a complete city. This would mean taller blocks and denser towns too.

A QUESTION OF LIVEABILITY

Bharati: But how liveable will the city be? Dense, overcrowded estates, parks, transportation nodes. Transport nodes have experienced that already. We’ve seen more MRT lines open up but clearly at one stage, the city wasn’t ready to accommodate the population comfortably because of the influx of immigrants. What about such issues?

Liu: Yes, because at that time, we didn't expect the population to grow so fast. We didn't expect Singapore economy to be so successful.

We need to learn our lesson. If we plan for taller and more dense development now, if we decide now, we can distribute the taller buildings more evenly across our island and therefore you won’t see big bunches of tall building in certain areas.

If you do that, those areas become like a slum area. So if we do it now, we have better chance of creating an environment where you have a mixture of different densities. That makes for better living. For example, people not only accept, but love The Pinnacle. Why? Because The Pinnacle stands alone among the shop houses. If you put 20 such buildings next to each other, would you still love The Pinnacle? I want to avoid that situation. High-rise housing must be mixed with low-rise schools, parks, sports fields, low-rise neighborhood centers and so on. The definition of high-density is to create a physical environment where it’s very difficult to see the sky but if you mix them around this way, it’s still possible to see the sky.

If we plan now for a larger population now, we can avoid possible future overcrowding on the transport system too. I’m happy to see that the Government in recent years has added quite a few MRT lines. But I just hope that they have done a calculation to see whether the train and the bus stations be able to cope with the amount of travelers. If they have done this calculation, then maybe the problem would be solved in due course.

Bharati: Right now, we are seeing issues with the Bukit Panjang Light Rail Transit system. It will soon be overhauled. Minister Khaw Boon Wan said the Bukit Panjang LRT was an “afterthought” built under “political pressure”. Apparently they had not anticipated a need for LRT during the town planning stage. This resulted in the LRT having to be built around existing developments, incorporating “sharp turns over undulating terrain” and over time, leading to “power trips at the sharp bends". What alternative strategies would you suggest as a planner to anticipate such needs or to mitigate such problems?

Liu: I shall abstain from commenting on the Bukit Panjang LRT. I will not want to be drawn into any political debates.

If we plan for a larger population and do the calculations right. We can avoid problems. If the population does not grow as projected, then we’ll have more than we need. That’s better than not having enough. But if the population doesn’t grow, it would also mean economic growth is in trouble. Then we have a bigger problem. We have a chance to do it now. If we plan now, we can take better charge of the situation because now we have more land available for us to play around with the density.

Bharati: Of course, the train disruptions are angering people too.

Liu: That’s a separate thing. One is to plan for the needs and actually to have our MRT service and bus services. The two must be combined and done well. We need several factors. One is to set the target of how many per cent of people would want to travel by public transportation. Two is to plan according to such projections and three is to plan and develop them in good time. So I think currently, the development is slightly behind time. I personally remain reasonably optimistic assuming that they have done their calculations.

For the transport issue, there is the maintenance factor. Maintenance is quite obvious that it’s not as good as one had wished. This is a management issue, not a planning issue.
Bharati: Of course if the planning isn’t done well, the strain on the infrastructure could make maintenance even more arduous too.

Liu: Yes, so as planners we plan as well as we can. When we talk about problems, we have to be very clear in what context we are talking about them.

Bharati: There are plans to build some facilities underground such as storage facilities. Would your plan involve subterranean housing?

Liu: No. Would anyone want to live and work underground? Some people have talked about it but to me, that is not an option. You can use underground for storage, because the goods don't complain. They don't need the sun and they don't need the see the trees. But human beings need to see the sun, need to see the trees. So that’s another reason that we need to plan now for 10 million so that we don't run out of land and need to go underground.

Bharati: Why do you think our Government planners today are not doing what you’ve suggested in terms of thinking beyond the next 15 years?

Liu: No idea. Since I left the Government, I haven’t really had a communication channel with the Government. But I hope that they will take the 10 million seriously and really try to study a plan for that.

NO NEED TO LOSE HERITAGE, NATURE AREAS OR GOLF COURSES

Bharati: You’ve mentioned the importance of preserving heritage and nature areas and even golf courses while being able to house a population of 10 million. But already today, at about half that population, we’ve seen several nature and heritage go or in danger of going. The loss of Bukit Brown caused quite a furore. There’s been a debate over the impact of the Cross Island MRT line being built beneath the Central Catchment Nature Reserve. With your plan, will there be more losses?

Liu: Whatever we have today, I would say deserves to be kept for a long time. There’s no need to lose more.

Bharati: Why are you so confident it’s possible to house more people without losing heritage and nature when urban planners today have not managed to inspire that confidence in people?

Liu: I’ve also learnt that nothing is absolute. Even during my time, it was already made known that Bukit Brown would be gone. I cannot guarantee that what we have now will be kept. There’s a Chinese saying: “a sparrow may be small but it has all the organs of a bigger animal”. Singapore is not just a city. We are a country. We must have all the facilities of a country.

I don’t want to lose heritage because if Singapore were to be a world-class city, you need to have heritage, you need to have culture, you need to have a beautiful natural environment, you need to have golf courses. If we don’t have all these things, we cease to be a world-class city.
Bharati: Why golf courses though? Some have said they’re not at all essential.

Liu: Well, leisure is part of living and also it’s good for businessmen as well and if it’s good for businessmen, it’s good for the economy.

Bharati: So when planners today say that we have to sacrifice these and other heritage and nature areas for the sake of development, are they wrong?

Liu: I’m not in communication with the planners but if I look at the map of Singapore, we do have spaces that we can use without sacrificing heritage and nature. We still have land not reclaimed and I must say, every time I take off from Changi to go overseas, I’m very, very happy to see the that Pulau Tekong is now reclaimed to be a much bigger island than I envisaged in those days. We could also redevelop some of the industrial areas because a lot of the industrial areas in the earlier days were single-storey terrace factories. Now, you can actually intensify these. So we can also hopefully use some of the excess land for housing, for commerce and so on. If the planners say that we have very little land. We can’t go for 10 million, I would say if that’s the case, it’s even more critical that we plan for 10 million now. If we plan for 15 years or maybe add another 10 to 20 years, we might use up all the land, but the population might continue to grow because the economy is still booming. Will we then say, “There’s no more land, so we should stop economic growth?” Is that a good idea?

Bharati: Could we have avoided losing some heritage buildings or nature areas had planners over the years done a better job of using land efficiently?

Liu: Off the cuff I can’t think of anything that been a serious loss. I would say so far, our Government has done a very rational job. Some things I believe were necessary. In urban planning, you have to make a choice between heritage, nature, rivers and cemeteries.

Personally, I feel on issues like cemeteries like Bukit Brown - the priority should be for the living rather than for the dead. Each issue needs to be examined independently.
Bharati: What’s your stand on the Central Catchment Nature Reserve issue?

Liu: I’ve left the Government and I don’t want to get drawn into the controversy, but since you asked, I would say that MRT line investment is expensive so if the same line can go through more urban areas, picking up more passengers, first of all, you get a better return for your investment. Secondly, you serve more people than if you go underground without income and without serving more people.

You save some time for the people on the line but you cause more people not being able to take the MRT lines. So I think the subtotal of it is quite different. I think we should look at the bigger good. But I must say, this is comment based on pure theory. I haven’t really studied the problem.

When it comes to places like Rochor Centre, I would say I believe the Government has probably done an economic study. It’s public housing but in a place with a very high land premium. By tearing down and redeveloping for something of higher value, to me, makes economic sense and I personally feel that that’s not a bad decision.

Bharati: Some people are now also taking issue with the loss of farmland.

Liu: I haven't made any study of that except that some time ago, I heard a talk about farming and this speaker said that it’s unrealistic for us to hope to be self-sufficient on our food supply. On the other hand, we still must maintain our vertical farms to do research because there is business for us to use more scientific ways to ensure quality food. What is more important is for us to create an urban environment which is as liveable as possible. If you want to have a small farm area to demonstrate to people how chicken and pigs and cows and goats live, I would say it can be considered but I don't think we can count on developing a large farm to give us good food supply. That, to me, is quite difficult.

Bharati: While being a proponent of nature and heritage, you also seem to take what some would describe as an unsentimental economic approach to the issues. How do you personally strike that balance?

Liu: You have to think of all of the factors at the same time.

Sometimes, the sentimental wins out. Sometimes you have to look at the alternatives and see if they will contribute to liveability more considering the limitations.
For different issues, certain factors may take higher priority than the others. But as a planner, you have to consider all of these factors.

Bharati: Are there any spaces or structures that you feel we absolutely should not lose in the future?

Liu: Off the cuff, nothing really comes to mind. But I feel we can develop without losing more. I would say serious things to lose would be things which are valuable to us but irreplaceable such as nature and historical buildings.

HIS IDEAL SINGAPORE

"There’s a Chinese saying: “a sparrow may be small but it has all the organs of a bigger animal”. We must have all the facilities of a country...you need to have heritage, you need to have culture," says Liu Thai Ker.

Bharati: Your plan, I understand, envisages a mega city made up of five smaller cities, each one with a population of just two million or so with its own Central Business District (CBD), own hotels, own cultural centre. The Government has planned a second CBD in the Jurong Lake District. What do you think of the current plans as a whole for Singapore?

Liu: If you want to create a CBD, you have to consider if the population size will support the CBD to fill the jobs and support the retail. You have to consider the increased amount of traffic and so on. You have to consider the increased demand for schools, universities, hospitals for the increased population. For the western part of Singapore to have a CBD, I feel that theoretically, it’s fine but I feel that we need to think about all these related issues. But won’t it be better if we consider the whole island as one whole collection of systems? That means if Singapore in the future would have four other secondary CBDs and all the traffic, the roads and the MRT lines and so on are planned at the same time and planned for a bigger population. It would give us better assurance that we will have a better environment, a good environment in the future for everyone living in each city – everyone will have the opportunity to live and work in one city. That means you don't have to spend a lot of time traveling long distances. You can go home to spend time with the family.

Bharati: You were Chief Executive of the HDB between 1979 and 1989. You made an impact in several areas including in the planning concept – the move from large-scale estates with localised facilities to new towns that were actually self-sufficient. But what would you say to people who feel that the flats that were built at the time didn’t really address liveability in the sense that they followed a cookie-cutter model?

Liu: Singapore was much poorer then. People’s incomes were lower, so it was important for us to build housing efficiently at a low-cost. Our goal was not to design aesthetic buildings to please the few people who an international education. Our main mission was to house as many people as possible, as quickly as possible. The young need to understand this. But also, not many people realise that in those days, our contractors were very inexperienced. So if we were to ask them to do something out of the ordinary, many mistakes would be made. I’ll give you one concrete example. In Buona Vista estate, because of the hill, I asked our engineer to design a step footing instead of a flat foundation so that we don't have to cut down the hill. Way past the construction completion date, I still couldn't see the building. So I asked my engineer about it. He said, “Oh, Mr Liu, you don't realise our contractor has never done this before. They're struggling to get it done.”

I want to say one thing though. Despite the high degree of standardisation, I did take care of two things among others. One is to give the places identity. I put non-housing buildings like churches, temples and community centres as much as I could at street corners to give the building blocks some identity. Also, we didn’t spend money adding aesthetic features to the buildings but I still wanted the buildings to be beautiful, so what did I do?

I learnt from Miss Universe. What’s the difference between Miss Universe and ordinary girls? Why is she prettier? It’s because she has nice proportions so I spent a lot of time working on the proportion of the HDB building façade.

In every HDB building, the relationship of the window sizes to the balconies to the size of the window panels and so on they are all carefully calculated and proportioned.

I also introduced a concept of street architecture. That means if you have a row of buildings in one whole block from one street corner to another street corner, that row of buildings should not be all flat. It should go up and down, so the whole street facade looks like a piece of artwork with rhythms and so on. If you look at the Bishan estate from Bishan Park, now, the buildings going up and down – that’s the result of street architecture. It was deliberate. It was not as thoughtless as some of the critics would say.

Bharati: You are the Chairman of the Centre for Liveable Cities’ Advisory Board. What other elements would you say absolutely cannot be compromised or must be introduced in order to ensure liveability here?

Liu: The purpose of planning can be summed up by two words. One, is people. The other, is land. The city needs to be functional and the economy has to be sustainable. These are the two fundamentals. This is the starting point, but to achieve them you need to think about liveability, resilience and so on. It’s a whole string of issues. Liveability involves health, education, culture and jobs and so on. You have to think about a green environment, low carbon emissions and so on for sustainability. We’ll have to also understand the basic human needs. To give you an example, I think one of the reasons that we have achieved good racial harmony is that in HDB estates, we provided religious sites for different faiths. The Chinese, Indian temples, mosques, and also churches. Always think of human needs – not just the practical ones, but the ones for human well-being and plan for it. We need to ensure protection of rivers, hills and in certain areas, we even protect the mangrove swamps and so on to keep the natural biological species. We have to consider many factors all at the same time.

Bharati: One of the things you take pride in is your focus on creating community spaces within housing estates. Some have remarked though that physical spaces don’t really help if people aren’t willing to interact. A lack of neighbourliness is an issue in many estates. Increasingly, people are interacting more online than in physical community spaces. Do you feel like your efforts have failed or are futile?

Liu: The concept of community space has been around for centuries. The most original community space is the village well for people to gather around while collecting water. In modern times, despite the introduction of telephones, some people still gather at community spaces, because face-to-face contact cannot be replaced by phones and emails. I think as a planner we can only try our best to provide the physical environment, conducive to human interaction but we cannot force the people to behave the way we want them to behave. But we cannot use that as an excuse for not creating conducive environment.

I often tell people that in HDB estates, we have provided a vertical kampung, but I'm waiting for you to show me the kampung spirit.

I remain hopeful that as long as the planner does his job to create a conducive environment, all you need is just one or two leaders in the community to lead to push it and things will happen.

Bharati: You said earlier you regret not having preserved a small part of the squatter areas. Do you regret anything else?

Liu: I wish that when I was at the URA, I had prepared more aggressively for a larger population. Planned the road traffic and MRT more like for a collection of five cities rather than five regions. If I had done so, the job of planning for a population of 10 million would be more easily done now.

Bharati: What legacy do you want to leave?

Liu: I feel that the fact that I started in HDB and with the help of all my colleagues, we created highly self- sufficient new towns and the segmented corridors to create a sense of community. I really hope this kind of community spirit can in time to come, nurture a stronger understanding of the culture and art and attitude to life among the different races. Not only will we achieve harmony but we would also enrich our understanding of life. I want to leave a legacy of having created such opportunities.


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Singapore's population size remains stable at 5.61m, with fewer non-residents

Channel NewsAsia 27 Sep 17;

SINGAPORE: There was little change in Singapore’s population size from 2016 to 2017, with total population growing by 0.1 per cent to 5.61 million.

This is because of a fall in the non-resident population, which dropped 1.6 per cent to 1.65 million, according to statistics released on Wednesday (Sep 27) by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) in its annual Population in Brief report.

Non-residents include dependants, international students and those who are here to work, and the fall in these numbers was mainly attributed to the decrease in work permit holders in the construction as well as marine and offshore engineering sectors. This reflects the weakness in these sectors, NPTD said.

As a result of the decline in the non-resident population, Singapore total population growth was almost flat at 0.1 per cent last year compared to the 1.3 per cent in the previous year, said the report.

CITIZEN POPULATION GREW, SLIGHT RISE IN PERMANENT RESIDENTS

At the same time, the statistics showed that citizen population grew by 0.9 per cent to 3.44 million due to citizen births and immigration.

Coupled with a slight rise in the number of permanent residents (PRs) from 520,000 to 530,000, there were 3.97 million residents - Singaporeans and PRs - as of June.

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Singapore grants between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizenships every year to "individuals who are committed to making Singapore their home", NPTD said in the report.

"Immigration helps to moderate the shrinking size and pace of ageing of our citizen population," it added.

There were 22,102 new citizens last year, the highest in at least 10 years. The majority (62 per cent) were from Southeast Asian countries, with 32.2 per cent from other Asian countries and 5.8 per cent from countries outside Asia.

About 1,500, or 7 per cent, of the new citizenships were granted to children born overseas to Singaporean parents, NPTD stated in its report.

The number of PRs granted was also slightly higher last year at 31,050, compared to 29,955 in 2015.

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Of the new PRs, 62 per cent were from Southeast Asian countries, 29.6 per cent from other Asian countries and 8.4 per cent from countries outside Asia.

The report also noted that the citizen population continues to age, and at a faster pace compared to the last decade. Between 2016 and 2017, the proportion of citizens aged 65 and above increased from 13.7 per cent to 14.4 per cent.


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Destruction of environment, overpopulation top risks for mankind, say top scientists

RUMI HARDASMALANI Today Online 31 Aug 17;

SINGAPORE — The two greatest threats facing mankind are environment destruction and overpopulation, according to a survey that polled 50 Nobel prize-winning scientists by the Times Higher Education at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings.

The poll was conducted in a series of annual conferences in Bavaria and released yesterday.

The resurgence of populism and the polarisation of politics were also cited as the most worrying trends today.

Some 40 per cent call these twin phenomena a “grave threat” to scientific progress, while 30 per cent say that they are a “serious threat”.

Just 5 per cent (two respondents) are entirely unconcerned, while 25 per cent perceive a “moderate threat”, reported the Times Higher Education.

Nuclear war, misinformation, drug-resistant diseases, artificial intelligence and Facebook were among the other phenomena regarded by the 50 Nobel laureates as serious risks, said the report.

At a forum here organised by Swiss bank UBS on Wednesday, four Nobel laureates in economic sciences echoed similar concerns.

The Nobel laureates were addressing more than 1,000 university students from across Singapore as they debated a wide range of topics from labour markets and the changing employment landscape, to financial risk and social systems.

Dr Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who won the Nobel prize in 2010 for his work on labour markets, noted that climate change will greatly exacerbate the challenges in dealing with the world’s migration problems.

Highlighting cyber war as another emerging threat, he added: “We are scrambling to build defences against cyber crime. It is going to shake things up … with the astonishing rate of growth of biology, there is a lot of talk about ethical concerns associated with bio-terrorism. The more biology is understood, technology makes it easier and cheaper to experiment,” added Dr Diamond.

Dr Michael Spence of NYU Stern, who received the Nobel Prize in 2001 for research on the dynamics of information flow and market development, agreed that cyber security and the role of technology would become more urgent in the future economy.

“It is not about the machines per se. It’s about us, and our interaction with the machine,” said Dr Spence.

He added that rules are needed to monitor new risks that come about with increased use of technology and cyber systems.

Responding to concerns raised by students at the forum about the lack of jobs in the future economy, the scientists had reassuring words for Singapore’s youth.

“Pursue your passion. Whatever you are doing, if you love what you do, don’t be afraid,” said Dr Robert Merton, who won the Nobel prize in 1997 for his research on financial theory.

While transitioning from information absorbers to active participants in businesses and economies, the future generation must have the ability to adapt to changes with a readiness to develop new skills and learn as they fail, he added.

“Remember there are alternatives and think about your current position as an experiment to be able to evaluate,” said Dr Diamond.

According to Dr Roger Myerson of the University of Chicago, who was awarded the Nobel prize in 2007 for the foundation of mechanism design theory, Singapore is well-positioned for the future.

“You can go to China, to India, to the Middle East, and to the English-speaking world. All of those traditions and cultures come together here. You are developing more awareness of the world that will enable you to make connections with people all over the world.

“That is a tremendous advantage as you develop your careers and grow the country.”


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Want to fight climate change? Have fewer children

Next best actions are selling your car, avoiding flights and going vegetarian, according to study into true impacts of different green lifestyle choices
Damian Carrington The Guardian 12 Jul 17;

The greatest impact individuals can have in fighting climate change is to have one fewer child, according to a new study that identifies the most effective ways people can cut their carbon emissions.

The next best actions are selling your car, avoiding long flights, and eating a vegetarian diet. These reduce emissions many times more than common green activities, such as recycling, using low energy light bulbs or drying washing on a line. However, the high impact actions are rarely mentioned in government advice and school textbooks, researchers found.

Carbon emissions must fall to two tonnes of CO2 per person by 2050 to avoid severe global warming, but in the US and Australia emissions are currently 16 tonnes per person and in the UK seven tonnes. “That’s obviously a really big change and we wanted to show that individuals have an opportunity to be a part of that,” said Kimberly Nicholas, at Lund University in Sweden and one of the research team.

The new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, sets out the impact of different actions on a comparable basis. By far the biggest ultimate impact is having one fewer child, which the researchers calculated equated to a reduction of 58 tonnes of CO2 for each year of a parent’s life.

The figure was calculated by totting up the emissions of the child and all their descendants, then dividing this total by the parent’s lifespan. Each parent was ascribed 50% of the child’s emissions, 25% of their grandchildren’s emissions and so on.

“We recognise these are deeply personal choices. But we can’t ignore the climate effect our lifestyle actually has,” said Nicholas. “It is our job as scientists to honestly report the data. Like a doctor who sees the patient is in poor health and might not like the message ‘smoking is bad for you’, we are forced to confront the fact that current emission levels are really bad for the planet and human society.”

“In life, there are many values on which people make decisions and carbon is only one of them,” she added. “I don’t have children, but it is a choice I am considering and discussing with my fiance. Because we care so much about climate change that will certainly be one factor we consider in the decision, but it won’t be the only one.”

Overpopulation has been a controversial factor in the climate change debate, with some pointing out that an American is responsible for 40 times the emissions produced by a Bangladeshi and that overconsumption is the crucial issue. The new research comes a day after researchers blamed overpopulation and overconsumption on the “biological annihilation” of wildlife which has started a mass extinction of species on the planet.

Nicholas said that many of the choices had positive effects as well, such as a healthier diet, as meat consumption in developed countries is about five times higher than recommended by health authorities. Cleaner transport also cuts air pollution, and walking and cycling can reduce obesity. “It is not a sacrifice message,” she said. “It is trying to find ways to live a good life in a way that leaves a good atmosphere for the planet. I’ve found it really positive to make many of these changes.”

The researchers analysed dozens of sources from Europe, North America and Japan to calculate the carbon savings individuals in richer nations can make. They found getting rid of a car saved 2.4 tonnes a year, avoiding a return transatlantic flight saved 1.6 tonnes and becoming vegetarian saved 0.8 tonnes a year.

These actions saved the same carbon whichever country an individual lived in, but others varied. The savings from switching to an electric car depend on how green electricity generation is, meaning big savings can be made in Australia but the savings in Belgium are six times lower. Switching your home energy supplier to a green energy company also varied, depending on whether the green energy displaces fossil fuel energy or not.

Nicholas said the low-impact actions, such as recycling, were still worth doing: “All of those are good things to do. But they are more of a beginning than an end. They are certainly not sufficient to tackle the scale of the climate challenge that we face.”

The researchers found that government advice in the US, Canada, EU and Australia rarely mentioned the high impact actions, with only the EU citing eating less meat and only Australia citing living without a car. None mentioned having one fewer child. In an analysis of school textbooks on Canada only 4% of the recommendations were high impact.

Chris Goodall, an author on low carbon living and energy, said: “The paper usefully reminds us what matters in the fight against global warming. But in some ways it will just reinforce the suspicion of the political right that the threat of climate change is simply a cover for reducing people’s freedom to live as they want.

“Population reduction would probably reduce carbon emissions but we have many other tools for getting global warming under control,” he said. “Perhaps more importantly, cutting the number of people on the planet will take hundreds of years. Emissions reduction needs to start now.”


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